2 hours ago - Politics

Markey dominates Moulton in new Senate primary poll

Mike Deehan

Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton stand behind lecterns before a debate at WWLP-22News in Chicopee, Mass. — Sen. Ed Markey (left) and Rep. Seth Moulton before their Democratic Senate primary debate in Chicopee, Mass., on July 8. Photo: Suzanne Kreiter/Boston Globe

Fresh poll numbers suggest U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton's attempt to unseat Sen. Ed Markey may be petering out before the Sept. 1 primary election.

Why it matters: A new UMass Amherst/WCVB poll shows Markey with a commanding lead over Moulton.

The polling gap has widened sharply from earlier surveys that put Moulton within striking distance of the veteran Markey.

By the numbers: The YouGov survey of 445 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted Aug. 5-12, found Markey ahead 60% to 32%, with 7% undecided. The poll's margin of error is 5.8 points.

Yes, but: As MassINC Polling Group's Steve Koczela wrote yesterday, predicting primary results through traditional polling is a dicey operation.

Between the lines: Markey leads with women (65%-24%), liberals (71%-25%) and every age group, including voters 18-29 (53%-22%).

Moulton's best numbers come from independents and moderates, as has been the case throughout the race.

State of play: Voters say they trust Markey over Moulton on the issues by a 2-to-1 margin (66%-34%).

Markey's job approval is 56% statewide and 83% among Democratic primary voters.

The bottom line: With two weeks left, this poll suggests Markey has a wide, durable lead across nearly every slice of the primary electorate and Moulton's days could be numbered.

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Markey dominates Moulton in new Senate primary poll

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