Healey's three 2026 vulnerabilities
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Gov. Maura Healey faces three important fault lines heading into Election Day.
Why it matters: Even if the political math heavily favors her, voters still need to evaluate her first term before giving her a second.
- Polls tell us voter frustration is concentrated in three areas: housing, cost of living and out-migration.
State of play: Massachusetts housing stock grew just 2.54% between 2019 and 2024, according to a report from the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce, and the median home list price hit nearly $800,000 in June.
- Healey has consistently enjoyed a big lead over Republican rivals Mike Minogue or Brian Shortsleeve.
- But a MassINC Polling Group survey from May put her favorability underwater, with just 39% of voters viewing her favorably compared with 45% unfavorably. That highlights voter dissatisfaction without a GOP challenger currently able to capitalize on it.
The MBTA Communities Act — Healey's signature housing tool inherited from former Gov. Charlie Baker — has faced opposition from communities. There's been less than a 1% housing bump in affected towns, per the Chamber.
- Boston University's Katherine Levine Einstein told Axios the governor could do better in a second term by being more aggressive with towns.
- State-imposed preemption, including allowing duplexes and triplexes statewide, tends to work better than letting towns write their own compliance plans, she said.
By the numbers: The cost of living goes beyond just housing expenses, and pocketbook anxieties are dominating voters' minds.
- A Suffolk University poll found energy costs have eclipsed housing shortages and persistent inflation as the No. 1 household expense concern for residents.
Utility costs have rivaled housing as the top pocketbook concern.
- Eversource customers pay $0.36 per kWh; National Grid customers pay $0.39.
- Healey's winter discount — 25% off electric, 10% off gas — cost $180 million but drew criticism as a short-term fix that won't make much impact on residents' wallets.
Zoom out: The state lost 33,340 residents to other states between 2024 and 2025, with prime working-age adults (26-44) making up more than half of them. Florida and New Hampshire were their top destinations.
- UMass Poll director Tatishe Nteta told Axios the departures reflect frustration with the state's tax structure among middle- and upper-income residents.
Reality check: Healey remains heavily favored to win a second term, so much of her current policy agenda will likely continue into 2027 and beyond.
- President Trump's unfavorable rating in Massachusetts (61%) gives Democrats like Healey a nationalized frame that overshadows local complaints.
- The MassGOP's rightward shift has left it without a Baker- or Weld-style moderate to capitalize on voter discontent. The Democrats are, for many middle-of-the-road Mass. voters, the only game in town.
Between the lines: Healey's campaign is turning the race into a referendum on Trump-aligned Republicans rather than her own first term.
- She's already pressing GOP rivals on ICE and other national issues.
The other side: Nteta said Healey has effectively neutralized progressive criticism while holding independent support, calling her a formidable candidate as a result.
The bottom line: Healey may not have faced a serious primary threat from her left, and the general election is hers to lose, but an uncontested race doesn't erase the record.
- Voters still have reason to weigh whether a second term will address housing and energy costs, or simply extend the policies of the first while national economic winds blow the commonwealth into uncharted territory.