Markey vs. Moulton race heats up
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Sen. Ed Markey (left) faces a growing primary threat from U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton. Photos: Joseph Prezioso and Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images
Deehan here with Spill of the Hill, my column unraveling Massachusetts politics.
All it took was one poll to scramble assumptions about the Massachusetts Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, one of the most watched races in the state this year.
Why it matters: After last week's Emerson poll showed Rep. Seth Moulton within a five-point striking distance of incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, politicos who expected a sleepy campaign season are rethinking the challenger's chances.
State of play: The poll had Markey at 37% to Moulton's 32%.
- Almost as many voters, 29%, said they're still undecided.
- That's a dramatic shift from an April Suffolk University survey that put Markey up by 17 points, though he still leads significantly among registered Democrats.
Between the lines: In a low-turnout primary, a large undecided bloc is a huge opportunity.
- Moulton's "generational change" argument, centered on Markey's age, appears to be finding some traction with unenrolled voters outside the Democratic base.
Zoom in: The poll's crosstabs are where Markey's team should be paying attention.
- Moulton leads among unenrolled voters 38%–32%.
- Among voters under 50, 39% say they're undecided.
- And among women, historically a core constituency for Markey, 33% say they haven't made up their minds.
What they're saying: "When you give voters a choice between the status quo and next-generation leadership, they choose the future," Moulton spokesman Taylor Hebble told Axios.
- Moulton's team say they want to maintain their momentum leading into the Democratic state convention later this month.
Yes, but: Markey's campaign sees the Emerson poll as an aberration.
- "Sometimes a poll is such a clear outlier you have to wonder if they accidentally surveyed a parallel universe," Markey campaign manager Cam Charbonnier told Axios.
The big picture: Markey's structural advantages in the race are still formidable.
- He holds endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and most major labor unions.
- And there is still considerable energy and loyalty in the "Markeyverse" of younger, college-educated progressives that lifted him through the challenge six years ago from former Congressman Joe Kennedy.
What's next: Backed by party loyalists, Markey will likely have a strong showing at the state convention in Worcester on May 29.
- Whoever wins the Democratic primary faces little threat in the general election.
- Attorney and crypto activist John Deaton, the presumptive GOP nominee, trails both Markey and Moulton by more than 20 points in recent polling.
The bottom line: The Dem race is real, but one poll doesn't make it a toss-up.
- Markey is still the clear favorite. Moulton needs those undecideds to break his way, and fast, if he's to stay competitive.