A blue wave would bury the Mass. GOP deeper
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If there's a "blue wave" of Democratic success at the polls this fall, it won't mean much for the leaders who already run Beacon Hill, but it could bury the opposition party even deeper.
Why it matters: Republicans currently hold about 15 percent of seats across the House and Senate. It's a small but not inconsequential presence that assures at least some open debate and public votes.
- Republicans have seen their numbers dwindle when Democrats win big.
During the 2006 anti-Bush midterms, aka the "thumpin'," the House GOP dropped from 21 seats to 19.
- The 2008 Obama wave cost them another three seats.
- The 2018 anti-Trump surge saw the loss of another GOP Senate seat and two more in the House.
Yes, but: Geography plays a role here. Many legislative districts go uncontested entirely. That caps how much any wave can actually move the body.
Between the lines: Voters say they don't like the Legislature. In fact, 51% see it unfavorably.
- But voters keep sending incumbents back to the State House every two years.
- There are few political consequences for Democrats, even when voters say they're dissatisfied.
Here's the pattern: Wave energy in Massachusetts won't cause dramatic power shifts — it'll produce incremental compression of an already-diminished minority.
- And if voters return Gov. Maura Healey to the Corner Office as expected, the GOP will be left with very little voice in Massachusetts policy.
A smaller GOP caucus loses leverage to insist on roll call votes, which require a minimum threshold of members.
- Fewer Republicans also means fewer opportunities to stall legislation, demand amendments or try to rile up dissenting floor debate.
What we're watching: Longtime House Minority Leader Brad Jones of Reading is stepping down after this term and Republicans will have to replace him.
- Some in the caucus want a more aggressive leader to combat the Democratic hegemony.
The bottom line: Democrats already wield veto-proof supermajorities in both the House and Senate. A wave year won't unlock new power, but it will cement it.