What Boston's increase in homicides tells us
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
Boston may be on track to exceed the number of homicides it saw last year, per data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
The big picture: The number of Boston homicides remains small in the first six months of the year, especially compared to other cities, but the uptick comes as cities nationwide are seeing homicides fall.
By the numbers: Boston police reported 17 homicides between Jan. 1 and June 30, per the report.
- That's a 143% increase from the first half of 2024, when Boston had seven homicides.
- Boston finished the year with 24 homicides, losing 17 more people in the second half of the year.
Reality check: 143% sounds far scarier than an increase of 10 (blame the law of small numbers).
- At this pace, Boston's on track to finish the year with close to the same number of homicides it had in 2023 — the year it first set the record for having the lowest number reported since the Boston Regional Intelligence Center started counting.
What they're saying: "One murder is too many, but Boston's success in driving gun violence downward now means that small increases in homicides look large in percentage terms," says Thomas Abt, founding director of the Center for Study and Practice of Violence Reduction at the University of Maryland.
- "Overall, the city's anti-violence efforts are a success."
Experts have pointed to Boston's Violence Intervention and Prevention Initiative and other city programs as factors helping Boston reduce crime in recent years.
- Officials from Boston police and Mayor Michelle Wu's office did not respond to requests for comment.
What we're watching: Boston's uptick comes as Wu faces off against Josh Kraft in the preliminary mayoral race next month — and after the city faced erroneous claims from Republicans that it's crime-ridden because of its sanctuary city policy.