Facing tougher GOP opponents, bad poll numbers, a Healey reelection could be a fight
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Deehan here, back with Spill of the Hill, my column unraveling Massachusetts politics.
Two factors make the coming 2026 gubernatorial election a bigger deal than anyone would have guessed just a few months ago.
State of play: Gov. Maura Healey's poll numbers are in the basement.
- And her Republican challengers are more electable than anyone the GOP has put up against Healey before.
Healey has only been up against MAGA-aligned or extreme long-shot Republicans since first being elected attorney general in 2014.
- She beat little-known construction attorney John Miller that year, rolled over MAGA candidate James McMahon in 2018 and trounced Trump favorite Geoff Diehl in 2022.
Now, Healey finds herself up against a pair of first-time GOP candidates that have something in common: They both come from the administration of former Gov. Charlie Baker, the last Republican who managed to win anything statewide in Massachusetts.
- Mike Kennealy, Baker's former budget chief, is taking his old boss' moderate road.
- Former MBTA general manager Brian Shortsleeve is striking a more conservative tone, but sticking to issues Mass. voters care about rather than tying himself to Trump's agenda.
Friction point: Even if the GOP brand is toxic to most Massachusetts voters, it doesn't mean they necessarily want Healey back in the corner office.
- Only 49% of voters approved of the job Healey's doing and 45% didn't, according to a new UNH poll.
- That's the third bad poll for Healey. She was at 54% a few months ago and 42% at the end of last year.
Between the lines: Massachusetts voters have a history of splitting the ticket between Democrats and Republicans, meaning there's always a chance a competent GOP campaign could knock off an unpopular Democrat.
The bottom line: Healey can't rely solely on the D after her name on the ballot if she wants a second term.