Black Boston in 2050: A commercial hub re-emerges

Why it matters: The Roxbury neighborhood is in the throes of major redevelopment, and business leaders envision a future that bolsters the local economy while preserving the area's culture and diversity.

Between the lines: Boston's Black mecca has survived urban renewal, riots sparked by racism, decades of disinvestment and the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Barring any freak accident that decimates the neighborhood, Nubian Square is poised to live on and thrive into 2050, local business leaders and residents say.
• What's less certain is how climate change, traffic and gentrification will shape the majority-Black neighborhood.

State of play: Developers, business leaders and advocates are transforming Nubian Square, planting the seeds for a prosperous city center, from upcoming developments with artist housing and college classrooms to new liquor licenses and creative spaces.

Fast-forward to 2050: Nubian Square is home to small businesses, arts venues and nightlife, while local colleges churn out climate and tech workers, says Nicole Obi, president and CEO of the Black Economic Council of Massachusetts.

🚌 Transportation: The neighborhood's traffic may persist if people keep relying on cars, but Imari Paris Jeffries, president and CEO of Embrace Boston, envisions a transportation hub powered by electric buses and more walkable streets.

• Ciyadh Wells, executive director of the Black arts organization Castle of Our Skins, sees Nubian Square being less walkable due to traffic.
• "Unfortunately, I think this area will always be transportation-challenged," Wells, a Roxbury resident, tells Axios.

👨🏾‍🔬 Workforce: If successful, the neighborhood's colleges will be producing top talent for the climate, biotech and tech sectors, Obi predicts.

• And everyone from entrepreneurs to politicians will be applying AI in their work.

🎵 Culture and nightlife: Picture an 18-hour scene with restaurants, musical performances and events for all ages.

• For Nubian Square to re-emerge as a commercial center, it must be a place where locals live, work and play from the morning to late at night, Obi says.
• Wells envisions a neighborhood where artists, business owners and residents pay homage to its past and celebrate who they are, be it through the library, her Black arts organization Castle of Our Skins or other venues.

🛍️ Commerce: Nubian Square is poised to draw shoppers and locals in 2050 like it did in the days of Nubian Notion and the music venue Roscoe's, historian Dart Adams predicts.

• Back in the 20th century, the demolition of the elevated train and efforts to focus commerce in Downtown Crossing dealt a blow to then-Dudley Square.
• Adams foresees the neighborhood fulfilling the vision that leaders had for downtown.

Yes, but: One of the biggest challenges facing Roxbury ahead of 2050 is thriving while maintaining the fabric of its racially and ethnically diverse community.

• City after city have seen neighborhoods revitalized only for residents who spent generations there to get priced out, from Brooklyn to Boston's South End.
• A 2020 study on displacement suggests that gentrification disproportionally affects Black residents, pushing them outside their neighborhoods — and sometimes outside of their cities altogether — and into disadvantaged areas.

🏘️ Housing: The Nubian Square of 2050 has more residents — a mix of homeowners and renters in market-rate and affordable apartments, says Jeffries.

• Both Obi and Jeffries expressed concerns about gentrification, but say a variety of homeownership and affordable housing options — as well as investment in and collaboration with local businesses — can ensure the neighborhood's longtime residents don't get pushed out by 2050.

Zoom out: Roxbury residents will also have to contend with changes to American society in the 21st century, which could affect housing conditions.

• The nation will continue to see the effects of climate change, with parts of Roxbury, Dorchester and Mattapan likely experiencing more extreme heat and flooding.
• The country's racial wealth gaps are projected to worsen by then, with Black Americans' wealth dropping to zero by 2053, per a report by Prosperity Now and the Institute for Policy Studies.
• The stakes may be particularly high in Boston, which in 2021 had one of the largest racial homeownership gaps in the nation.

Yes, but: Despite the hurdles ahead, Roxbury residents and community leaders envision Nubian Square as a paragon of Black cultural and financial success well into the 21st century.