Looking for a Massachusetts Republican in the New Hampshire primary
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The two-person race to top the New Hampshire primary between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley has been encouraging for MAGA-leaning Republicans in Massachusetts but deeply disheartening for those in the local GOP who still cling to a more liberal kind of Republicanism.
Why it matters: If Donald Trump wins a third New Hampshire primary in a row, it could be the death knell for the style of politics that dominated New England Republicanism in the decades before his arrival in 2016.
- The days of the "fiscal conservative/social liberal" could be over.
Flashback: It wasn't long ago that Republicans in Massachusetts and our neighbors up north preferred a more moderate GOP standard-bearer.
- Mitt Romney and John McCain followed George W. Bush's wins in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire before losing to Democrats.
- Trump steamrolled over former Ohio Gov. John Kasich in 2016 and blew Massachusetts' own former Gov. William Weld out of the water in 2020.
- Polls suggest Haley could finish closer to Trump this year, which would please many of the anti-Trump GOPers still active in Massachusetts.
What they're saying: "[Haley is] obviously more conservative than most Massachusetts Republicans but she is within the bounds of mainstream, normally accepted candidates," former Gov. Jane Swift told Axios.
- Weld told Politico this week he likes Haley and expects to hear more from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the future.
- "He spoke truth to power, as far as Trump is concerned," Weld said.
In 2024, the idea of a "Massachusetts Republican" would match the contemporary definition for that of most any other state: devoted to Trump.
- The former president dominated the 2016 and 2020 Massachusetts Republican primaries with even bigger wins than in the more competitive New Hampshire races a few weeks before.
- Recently-elected state Sen. Peter Durant (D-Spencer) said on WBZ over the weekend that "we have to understand that Donald Trump is a juggernaut" within the current party, with a media presence that's hard to overcome.
At the same time as New England conservatives turned to Trump, former Gov. Charlie Baker, the last of the old-school Massachusetts Republicans to hold statewide office, was widely regarded as the most popular governor in the country thanks to his appeal to independent voters.
- Baker didn't run for a third term in part because of the trouble he'd have had winning his party's nomination.
What's next: Massachusetts Senate Minority Leader Bruce Tarr (R-Gloucester) sees hope that in a post-Trump era of Republican politics — either later in 2024 or in 2028 — New Hampshire voters will swing back to preferring moderates.
- "There's a clear opportunity in the coming election for Republicans nationally if we can field a mainstream message and responsible message and one that builds on what I think Republicans in Massachusetts have historically advocated for," Tarr told Axios.