How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out

Why it matters: A Talarico win would give the Democrats an unexpected seat in their quest to retake the Senate — and potentially move Texas into the battleground column for 2028, a seismic reordering of the national electoral landscape.

The latest: Talarico ratcheted up the pressure on Paxton Thursday, announcing his campaign had raised more than $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton defeated longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Tuesday runoff — calling it the biggest single-day haul of the campaign.

State of play: The nonpartisan elections forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the race one notch to the left, from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" after Paxton's victory.

• Paxton, the state attorney general, has dodged an impeachment conviction and an FBI investigation over corruption allegations from his own senior staffers. He also avoided a trial on felony security charges. Now his wife, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton, is seeking a divorce on "biblical grounds."
• Meanwhile, Democrats are invigorated by special election results across the country, including in Texas, and see hope in President Trump's low approval ratings.

Yes, but: The U.S. Senate race will not be some small special election — and Paxton has won statewide elections three times before. Republicans also have a historical advantage in Texas, where they have swept every statewide election since 1996.

Follow the money: Talarico has proven a formidable fundraiser; Paxton has not.

• With more money in the bank, Talarico can shape the general election campaign narrative out of the gate.
• The Senate Republican campaign arm spent lavishly for the Cornyn campaign and now must return to donors to ask for money for the candidate they were seeking to defeat.

What we're watching: The election could hinge on the answers to these questions:

• Can Paxton count on the support of establishment Republicans — personified by the George W. Bush wing of the party — who supported Cornyn?
• Will Black voters who supported U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) in her Senate primary campaign turn out for Talarico?
• Will Austin-based podcaster Joe Rogan, whose influence on young white men was so heavily scrutinized after the 2024 election and who praised Talarico on his show last year, go to bat for the Democrat — and will it matter?
• Will Talarico's populist message resonate amid rising prices — and Paxton's familiar culture warfare?

• More broadly, to the extent this vote is a referendum on the president, what will the national mood about Trump be in October, when early voting begins? Will Republicans want to show their support for the president — or will many of them stay home?

What's next: Talarico's first campaign stops of his general election campaign hint at his strategy: Excite the Democratic base and win over disaffected Republican voters in suburban and rural areas.

• He rallied in Houston on Wednesday night, and is scheduled to speak Thursday night in Nacogdoches in deep-red East Texas, followed by San Antonio, the Austin suburb of Leander and then Plano — just down the road from Paxton's hometown in the northern Dallas suburbs.
• At a packed nightclub in Houston, Talarico cast Paxton as a puppet of "mega-billionaire donors," and accusing him of enriching himself while Texans struggle.
• "We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis," he said.

The other side: At his victory rally on Tuesday night, Paxton also referred to Talarico as a puppet — of "Chuck Schumer and the national Democrats" — and as an "extreme radical."

• Paxton accused Talarico of running a "vegan campaign" and called his opponent "James Talafreako."
• The next night, Talarico said that he's been "eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton's first indictment" and his campaign has coopted the insult, selling "I'm a Talafreako" T-shirts.

Jay R. Jordan contributed reporting.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with James Talarico's latest fundraising figure.