The Texas GOP's Latino momentum is in peril
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Nearly a year into President Trump's second term, a slowing economy, the specter of immigration raids by masked federal agents and the continued rise in prices is jeopardizing inroads the GOP has made with Texas Latinos, political science experts tell Axios.
Why it matters: The Texas Latino vote might be shifting back toward Democrats in ways that could upend the GOP's best-laid plans to redraw the state's congressional districts to the party's advantage.
Catch up quick: Trump might have won as much as 55% of the Texas Latino vote in 2024 — a 13-point increase from 2020. He got about 48% of the overall U.S. Latino vote last year.
- Seeking to take advantage of that rightward shift, Republican state lawmakers increased the number of majority-Hispanic districts in the new congressional map signed into law this summer by Gov. Greg Abbott.
- The map, which is in limbo in the courts, targets Democrats in an attempt to create five new GOP seats ahead of the 2026 midterms — and aims to ensure the U.S. House remains a steady ally of Trump.
State of play: Latinos feel historic levels of pessimism about their place in the U.S., their economic stability and the impact of Trump's second-term policies, per a recent Pew Research Center survey of more than 8,000 adults.
- That and a recent Axios-Ipsos poll suggest Trump has all but wiped out the historic gains Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024.
Case in point: In the recent New Jersey governor's race, Democrats won back much of the ground they lost with Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential race, according to an analysis by the New York Times.
What they're saying: That result should worry Texas Republicans, even if Texas Latinos are generally more conservative than their New Jersey counterparts, Álvaro Corral, a political scientist at UT-Rio Grande Valley who specializes in U.S. Latino politics, tells Axios.
- "Texas Republicans' gamble was predicated on the return of the vibrant Trump economy that people knew from his first term — and has yet to materialize," Corral says.
Zoom in: Corral sees signs of Democrats' confidence in McAllen, where he lives, including an increased number of candidates running in Democratic primaries along the border and the decision of Tejano star Bobby Pulido to run as a Democrat for Congress.
- "He's a smart guy with a sophisticated operation, and if he's trying to make the jump (into politics), that's an early indicator," Corral says.
Zoom out: A five-seat pickup for the Texas GOP "looks somewhat optimistic," SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson tells Axios.
- "There is a greater likelihood Republican gains are limited to three seats," with two seats targeted in South Texas likely to remain in Democratic hands, he says.
- Wilson adds that incumbent Democratic U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar — whom Trump on Wednesday pardoned for conspiracy and bribery charges — and Vicente Gonzalez "have a track record of holding on, even when their districts voted for Trump."
The other side: The White House, the Texas GOP and state Rep. Todd Hunter (R-Corpus Christi), who carried the redistricting legislation, did not immediately respond to Axios' interview requests.
Between the lines: Generally, voters have expressed discontent about inflation, but the "Hispanic electorate is one that is especially attuned to cost of living and economy issues," Wilson says.
- "They're disproportionately affected by working class discontent, so there's more swing in the electorate."
The bottom line: Democrats still need to win Texas Latinos over. Those who supported Trump "are disappointed, they have some buyers' remorse — but that doesn't mean they vote Democratic," Sergio Garcia-Rios, a UT professor and a pollster for Univision, tells Axios.