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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Republicans' likely hold on the Senate is forcing Joe Biden's transition team to consider limiting its prospective Cabinet nominees to those who Mitch McConnell can live with, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The new Senate political math could dash the ambitions of some Democrats, including those who have clashed with Republicans.

  • It could push Biden to go with more centrist options, like Lael Brainard for Treasury or Tony Blinken for State, sources tell Axios.
  • Susan Rice and Stacey Abrams could be early casualties, depending on McConnell's posture.
  • But it could also open paths for others, like Sen. Chris Coons, who could benefit from a tradition of senatorial courtesy for quick confirmations of nominees within its ranks.

A source close to McConnell tells Axios a Republican Senate would work with Biden on centrist nominees but no "radical progressives" or ones who are controversial with conservatives.

  • The Biden agenda would be severely restricted by GOP control, the source added: "It's going to be armed camps."

The state of play: The process is in its early stages as Biden officials await final numbers on the size of the majority, and any potential signals from McConnell about whether he'll fight every nominee or focus on one or two examples.

  • Traditionally, an incoming president is given wide berth to pick his desired team.

The big picture: This political reality could result in Biden having a more centrist Cabinet.

  • It also gives Biden a ready excuse to reject left-of-center candidates, like Sens. Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, who have the enthusiastic backing of progressives.
  • Biden had already been considering an informal ban on nominating Democratic senators to avoid uncertainty about who would fill their seats.

Between the lines: Rice, who was Barack Obama's former UN ambassador and national security adviser, has long been considered in the running for secretary of state or another Cabinet position.

  • But she clashed with Republicans and became a lightning rod while defending the administration's response to the 2012 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi.
  • Biden vetted Rice for vice president, and she was projected as a top pick for State after being passed over for Kamala Harris.
  • “For those interested in facts, Ambassador Rice has twice been unanimously confirmed by the Senate,” said Erin Pelton, a Rice spokesperson, referring to two confirmations before the Benghazi controversy.

What we're hearing: Abrams, the former Georgia House minority leader, also faces a tough time being confirmed by a Republican Senate.

  • Sally Yates, who is under consideration for Attorney General, could face resistance because of her role in the Justice Department's investigation into Trump's national security adviser Michael Flynn.
  • In August, Yates defended her role before Congress and accused Flynn of "neutering" American sanctions on Russia.

Be smart: Biden may end up leaning more on Democratic senators in blue states, or ex-senators.

  • That could boost Coons' case for State. And Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, who lost on Tuesday, may have an easier time than Yates at Justice.
  • If Biden appoints Coons to State, Democrats wouldn't be down a seat in the Senate, as Delaware’s Democratic governor John Carney could quickly appoint Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester to the seat. That would ensure Senate Democrats have at least one Black woman in their ranks.
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Go deeper

Updated Mar 24, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Biden Cabinet tracker: Which nominees have been confirmed

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Jan. 16 in Wilmington, Delaware. Photo: Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

All of President Biden's Cabinet nominees have now been confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

The big picture: Biden now has known, trusted people around him, many from the Obama administration, to help implement his policies and turn away from the tumultuous Trump years.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
10 mins ago - Energy & Environment

IEA analysis charts "narrow" pathway to Paris climate goal

Photovoltaic solar panels at the power plant in La Colle des Mees, Alpes de Haute Provence, southeastern France. Photo: Gerard Julien/AFP via Getty Images

The pathway for transforming global energy systems to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 is "narrow but still achievable" and demands unprecedented acceleration away from fossil fuels, an International Energy Agency report published Tuesday concludes.

Why it matters: It provides detailed analysis and estimates of what's needed for a good shot at limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels — the Paris Agreement benchmark for avoiding some of the most damaging effects of climate change.

2 hours ago - World

In photos: Deadly Cyclone Tauktae leaves trail of destruction across India

A police officer helps a public transport driver cross a flooded street due to heavy rain caused by Tropical Cyclone Tauktae in Mumbai, India, on May 17. Photo: Ashish Vaishnav/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae killed at least 16 people in India after making landfall in Gujarat Monday, packing 100mph winds, and sweeping across Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra, per Reuters.

The big picture: The storm unleashed heavy rains and winds as authorities continued to grapple with surging infection rates and deaths from COVID-19. Over 200,000 people were evacuated from Gujarat, and ports, airports and vaccination centers shut in the state and Mumbai, Reuters reports. Tauktae weakened from a Category 3 storm into a "severe cyclonic storm" Tuesday morning local time.

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