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UN Secretary-General António Guterres is embarking on a trip to Antarctica beginning Monday, where he aims to see climate change impacts up close. 

Why it matters: Guterres, who favors aggressive emissions cuts to planet-warming greenhouse gases, is likely to use the trip as a springboard to his discussions with world leaders at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai. 

He plans to fly to Chile first, then visit the country's Frei Base early this week. 

Between the lines: The official revealed the trip in comments responding to a major new UN climate analysis out Monday morning. 

In his response to the 2023 Emissions Gap Report, Guterres laid out his criteria for a successful outcome at COP28, where countries will consider the needs for a more stringent round of commitments to cut emissions. 

Specifically, Guterres advocates for countries to commit to tripling renewables capacity, doubling energy efficiency and bringing "clean power to all" by 2030. 

Guterres is in favor of new emissions reduction targets that include time frames for a fossil fuel phase out. 

Context: Guterres won't be the first secretary general to visit Antarctica during their term. Former UN leader Ban Ki-moon also visited the icebound continent during his time in office. 

Parts of Antarctica has seen rising temperatures in recent years, with the pace of ice melt quickening. Some studies have shown that parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are already in an "unavoidable" decline.  

What they're saying: "I will take my experiences to COP where I will call for action that matches the scale of the crisis we face," Guterres said in comments Monday morning. 

UN secretary general heads to Antarctica on pre-COP28 climate visit

Guterres says he wants to see the impacts of climate change up close, to bring that perspective to COP28 in Dubai.

An iceberg is seen on ocean on Dec. 18, 2019 in Antarctica. (Photo by Zheng Xianzhang/VCG via Getty Images)

Antarctica

Climate change

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The globe is headed for nearly 3°C (5.4°F) of warming compared with preindustrial levels through 2100, new data finds, even if current policies to cut planet-warming emissions are met. 

Driving the news: The United Nations' 2023 "Emissions Gap Report" details the distance between pledged greenhouse gas emissions cuts made by countries and the reductions needed to be on course to meet Paris targets. 

The information in this year's edition is designed to inform negotiators at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai that begins at the end of the month. 

The summit will feature the first "Global Stocktake," which will set up national pledges to cut emissions between 2025 and 2035.  

Why it matters: The report acknowledges previous findings that have shared the same main conclusion, but with different numbers: the world is far off track in its efforts to contain global warming.

Zoom in: A warming of about 3°C would greatly exceed the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris targets. 

The report also found that fully implementing emissions pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), would reduce warming to between 2.5°C (4.5°F) to 2.9°C (5.22°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100.  

These higher temperatures would have a far greater chance of triggering tipping points in the climate system; those include the loss of parts (or all) of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and potential shutdown of a vital ocean current. 

The report finds that Paris targets could only be met by fully implementing both conditional and unconditional parts of emissions pledges to date, as well as translating global net zero goals into action. 

Currently, net zero pledges cover about 80% of emissions, but most are hollow, without implementing mechanisms to back them up.

By the numbers: The emissions gap report is the latest in a slew of recent analyses showing how countries are still falling well short of their commitments to climate action.

Using current NDCs, the emissions gap in 2030 would be 14 billion tons of CO2 for the 2°C target, and 22 billion tons for the 1.5-degree goal, the report shows. The latter figure is larger than the estimated 2022 annual emissions of the U.S. and China combined.

To meet the 2°C target, the report finds that emissions would need to decline by 28% by 2030 compared with current policy scenarios, and by 42% to stand a chance of meeting the 1.5-degree goal. In contrast, global emissions rose by 1.2% between 2021-2022, per the report. 

The chances, however, of holding warming to 1.5 degrees without any overshoot period would be extremely low, the report shows, pegging it at just 14% in the most optimistic scenarios. 

The analysis finds that the emissions gap estimates are likely to be underestimated because the least-cost pathways to meet the Paris targets assume that stringent reductions began in 2020. Instead, they have continued to increase.

Between the lines: The amounts of warming seen in this series have become somewhat less dire over the years, while climate solutions have proliferated. 

The 2016 edition, for example, had a projected warming of up to 3.4°C (6.12°F) under a current-policies trajectory. 

While warming projections have come down somewhat, the world is running out of time and space in the carbon budget to ensure Paris targets are met. 

In addition, scientists have been seeing more significant climate impacts, from heat waves to wildfires, which are happening with lower amounts of global warming. 

Of note: This year has featured the world's hottest month on record and is virtually certain to become the hottest year in at least 125,000 years. 

The intrigue: The report takes a cautious approach regarding the potential over-reliance on a risky technological fix to the emissions gap. 

It says any delays in policies to strengthen emissions reductions would boost the dependence on carbon dioxide removal, including through new means currently in their infancy.

What they're saying: "At a time of doubt, division and distrust we need the response to the Global Stocktake to restore credibility in climate action," said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. "Leaders can't kick the can any further. We're out of road."

"There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather," said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Program, in a statement.

Earth is hurtling toward nearly 3°C of warming: Report

"Relentless" push to cut emissions by 2030 is needed, the UN Environment Program finds.

Animated illustration of the world as a ringing alarm clock.

Science

An extreme heat wave that's sweeping Brazil is setting daily and monthly records, and causing spring temperatures to soar to levels that would even be unusually hot during mid-summer in some areas.

The big picture: The death of a woman at a Taylor Swift concert at which firefighters said 1,000 fans fainted in searing Rio de Janeiro heat Friday comes as the National Institute of Meteorology warns that Brazilians face "great danger" from this extreme weather event.

In addition to threatening people's lives, the heat wave has triggered fires and power outages in Sao Paulo and Rio, exacerbated drought in the Amazon and threatened crops and biodiversity elsewhere in Brazil.

Zoom in: The combination of heat and humidity in Rio, a city of 6.7 million, led to perilous heat indices, with feels-like temperatures climbing well into the 100s over the weekend.

These readings make it hard for the human body to cool itself properly, and increase the risk of heat illness, including heat stroke, which can be fatal.

According to extreme weather researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one location in Rio recorded a maximum air temperature of 42.6°C (108.7°F). If accurate, this would set a monthly record. 

Herrera noted that in Rio's suburbs, the heat index climbed as high as 58.5°C (137°F), which he said is "arguably the highest/near the highest in South America climatic history" and in all of the Americas.

"The ongoing heat wave is not limited to Brazil, with Peru and Bolivia also setting record highs," Herrera wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Context: The extreme heat across much of Brazil, with the greatest temperature departures from average focused in the country's southeast, where Rio is located, is due in part to an area of high pressure aloft. 

This weather feature, also known as a heat dome, promotes sinking, warming air, and deters showers and thunderstorms from forming.

Meanwhile, meteorologist Jeff Berardelli noted that the wet season that usually begins in October was late and that the "dry season was very dry adding to extremes."

This has helped create favorable conditions for thousands of wildfires that are scorching Brazil's Pantanal wetlands — which are home to 159 mammals, including the jaguar.

Of note: Climate change is raising the odds and severity of heat waves in Brazil and globally, with some heat waves shown to be virtually impossible without human-caused warming.

El Niño is also likely playing a role in the large-scale weather patterns, leading to some of the heat this winter and spring in South America.

State of play: This extreme weather event follows an earlier spring heat wave that hit South America, when parts of Brazil recorded temperatures of 40°C (104°F). 

A recent climate attribution study found that climate change made that September heat wave much more likely, and 1.4°C (2.52°F) to 4.3°C (7.74°F) hotter, on average, than it would have been in the absence of climate change.

Last winter was one of the hottest on record in the continent, as temperatures surpassed 40°C (104°F) in parts of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia.

Go deeper: Earth likely briefly passed critical warming threshold on Friday

Earth likely briefly passed critical warming threshold on Friday

Dangerous spring heat wave threatens millions in Brazil

A Taylor Swift fan died in searing heat at a Rio concert on Friday.

A firefighter cools off Taylor Swift fans with a hose as they line up outside the Nilton Santos Olympic Stadium before the singer canceled the planned Eras Tour concert on Saturday due to a searing heat wave in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Photo: Tercio Teixeira/AFP via Getty Images

extreme weather

Extreme weather

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Business

In 2009, during a United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen, developed countries made a commitment. 

Zoom in: They promised that, by the year 2020 and lasting through 2025, they would provide $100 billion annually to developing nations to help them withstand the effects of climate change and mitigate emissions.

Driving the news: Preliminary new data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) indicates that industrialized nations likely met the $100 billion threshold only sometime last year.

Counting and classifying this money isn't cut and dried, given different types of government and private financial assistance.

For example, Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy of CAN International, criticized industrialized countries for relying too much on loans that must be paid back.

Why it matters: The persistent failure to meet this funding commitment has fed a major trust gap between the Global North and South. 

Many nations view it as a threshold issue that must be solved for progress to be made on other thorny agenda items that will surface at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai. This includes a new climate finance package.

Between the lines: Meeting the goal could be a significant boost for efforts to tackle other challenges at COP28, such as a fund to compensate developing nations for the damage that climate change has already caused, which is known as "loss and damage."

Still, global needs have also grown since 2009. At the time $100 billion seemed huge; now, not so much, given that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise and climate change's effects have walloped much of the globe.

$100 billion pales in comparison to the actual needs just for climate adaptation, which a recent U.N. report pegged at between $215 to $387 billion annually through 2030.

Reports released this week showed how significantly climate change is already affecting every corner of the U.S. and how far off track emissions cuts are compared with what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

What's next: While the $100 billion figure is important, it is a minuscule sum compared with what is needed to adapt to climate impacts and prevent worse warming.

Discussions at COP28 will focus on how to catalyze trillions from public and private coffers to fund the energy transition, assist hard-hit nations, and lower emissions.

For perspective, the U.S., alone now typically sees at least $150 billion a year in direct damages due to extreme weather events alone, some of which are being worsened by climate change. This number is rising with population growth, climate change and other factors.

"We really need to be shifting trillions," said Gaia Larsen, who specializes in climate finance at the nonprofit World Resources Institute.

What they're saying: "I think having this information by the OECD and showing that we have met that goal is an important milestone, but that's what it is. It's a milestone," Steven Guibeault, Canada's minister of environment and climate change, said at a press conference with his counterpart from Germany on Thursday. 

"We hope that by having this kind of as a foundation it can perhaps build some confidence on our commitment to work together with developing countries moving forward," said Jennifer Morgan, Germany's special envoy for international climate action.

Canada and Germany released a climate finance statement, echoing the OECD conclusion but going more in depth about future needs, on Thursday as well.

The intrigue: There are likely to be doubts among developing nations about the OECD's estimates, Larsen said.

Along those lines, incoming COP28 president-designate Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber released a skeptical statement. 

"I continue calling on donor countries to deliver on the $100 billion in annual climate finance to developing countries," he said. "The announcement by Germany and Canada today is encouraging, but there is still room for further ambition."

A $100 billion pledge shows the broken promise of climate finance

When it comes to climate finance, a promise made isn't exactly a promise kept.

 Illustrated collage of a handshake surrounded by rectangles made from international currency.

Data: Axios analysis of USDA data; Map: Will Chase/Axios

Warming temperatures are changing where and when different plant varieties can grow most successfully, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) map released this week.

Why it matters: The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is a kind of bible for farmers and gardeners, helping them understand which plants can thrive in their area — and when to plant them.

The new zones are particularly significant for those already growing plants at the extreme edge of their suggested range.

How it works: The map divides the U.S. into 13 zones, each representing a range of 10 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Each zone is divided further into two five-degree half zones.

Zoom in: The new zones are based on the average annual extreme minimum winter temperature from 1991–2020. 

The previous map, released in 2012, was based on 1976–2005 data.

"The annual extreme minimum temperature represents the coldest night of the year, which can be highly variable from year to year, depending on local weather patterns," per USDA.

The upshot: Areas in the Midwest and Great Plains warmed the most, shifting them into warmer half zones.

And the Pacific Northwest's growing season may last longer than in years past.

Yes, but: Many factors influence whether a given plant grows successfully or not, including light, soil moisture, humidity and exposure to the elements.

The USDA recommends consulting with local producers, nurseries or master gardeners for area-specific growing advice.

The bottom line: You don't need to start changing which plants you're growing — thriving plants will likely continue to grow successfully.

Climate change is forcing tweaks to a vital map for farmers and gardeners

Warming temperatures are changing where and when different plant varieties can grow most successfully.

Plants

Number of billion-dollar natural disaster events in the&nbsp;U.S.

The latest National Climate Assessment may give pause to both the financial sector and homeowners.

Why it matters: The cost of extreme weather events is projected to climb in the near-term and is already at least $150 billion per year in direct damages alone. (The report notes that is a conservative estimate.)

Billion-dollar disasters are occurring far more frequently now than they did in 1980, the findings show, going from about one every four months to one every three weeks.

Rising frequency and total costs are related to a booming population and increased expanse of the built environment, as well as climate change.

By the numbers: The situation is already stark.

Wildfire smoke already reduces earnings by $144 billion per year.

Inland flooding can reduce housing prices by 4.6% in 100-year floodplains, based on studied estimates.

Homes projected to be inundated by 1 foot of sea level rise cost 14.7% less than similar homes away from the climate risk, and homes near one recent wildfire are typically valued at 9.3% below safer ones.

What they're saying: "Not only are these direct costs, things like higher medical expenses, higher food prices, insurance premiums, repair costs, infrastructure damage, and so on," said Delavane Diaz, a report co-author.

"There's also these indirect costs on intangible non market goods like health and wellbeing, ecosystems and biodiversity," she told Axios.

Climate change is already costing the U.S. billions

The U.S. and China agreed Tuesday night to jointly tackle aspects of human-caused climate change, including the promotion of renewable energy technologies.

Why it matters: The agreement marks the next level of bilateral engagement on climate between the world's two biggest emitters.

Zoom in: It includes language stating the two countries will "pursue efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030," which could ease the adoption of that goal at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

Yes, but: The separately issued statements lack a commitment from China to stop approving new coal-fired power plants, a key U.S. concern based on carbon emissions.

The intrigue: The countries do touch on power sector emissions, noting that further boosting of renewables would "accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation," and that the two nations expect "post-peaking meaningful absolute power sector emission reduction" this decade.

The U.S. and China agreed to host a "summit" on methane at COP28 and work together to help address this short-lived but potent greenhouse gas.

They also committed to addressing greenhouse gases overall, including non-CO2 warming agents like nitrous oxide. 

What they're saying: "COP28 has its work cut out for it," said Li Shuo, incoming director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society. 

"The U.S.-China talks will help stabilize the politics when countries meet in the UAE," Shuo said, noting that critical issues will require further negotiation.

COP28 president-designate Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber lauded the agreement as a positive sign just over two weeks in advance of the summit. 

"The consensus reached between the US and China is a significant outcome ahead of COP28," he said in a statement. He said its commitments "will have a meaningful impact for generations to come." 

Of note: The statements stem from negotiations between top U.S. climate official John Kerry and his counterpart, Xie Zhenhua. 

U.S. and China strike deal on climate ahead of COP28

The world's two biggest emitters pledged to work together to tackle greenhouse gases.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Brian Snyder/AFP via Getty Images

China

Climate change is set to cause a 4.7-fold surge in heat-related deaths by mid-century if government inaction on global warming continues, a report published Tuesday found.

The big picture: The world is on track for 2.7°C (4.86°F) of heating by 2100 unless swift action is taken to lower emissions, according to the annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report.

The report analyzes what would happen if temperatures rise by 2°C by the end of the century.

For the first time ever, it featured projections that outline the rapidly growing risks to population health if the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is missed.

State of play: 2023 is on course to be the Earth's hottest ever year. The past eight years have been "the warmest ever recorded," study co-author Maria Walawender told Axios Tuesday.

The world has already seen "detrimental effects on health, including increasing hazardous heatwaves, dangerous outdoor work conditions, and heat-related deaths," said the Lancet Countdown research fellow in climate change and health via email.

Vulnerable groups, including older people and infants, faced "twice as many heat wave days" this decade compared to 20 years ago, Alex Macmillan, associate professor of environmental health at New Zealand's University of Otago, told Axios.

Meanwhile, the study notes that energy-related emissions reached a new record high last year.

Threat level: People last year were exposed to, on average, 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures, per the report. 

"60% of these temperatures were made more than twice as likely to occur by human-caused climate change." 

Another effect: The availability and price of food, per Macmillan.

Over 100 million more people experienced food insecurity in 2021 and human climate pollution was "directly to blame," said Macmillan, who was not involved in the study, via email.

What they found: Every health hazard monitored by the Lancet Countdown is predicted to worsen if temperatures rise to 2°C by the end of the century.

Annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370% by mid-century, with heat exposure expected to increase the hours of potential labor lost globally by 50%. 

More frequent heat waves could lead to around 525 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity by 2041-2060, exacerbating the global risk of malnutrition.   

Life-threatening infectious diseases are projected to spread further by mid-century, too.

Of note: The report's findings concur with those in a new United Nations report published Tuesday ahead of this month's UN climate summit that shows countries are falling short on their emissions pledges.

What's happening: The U.S. and China are both the world's two largest emitters and global leaders in renewable energy. The U.S. has pledged to cut emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 and China by over 65% the same year.

However, no high-emitting country is doing enough to tackle pollution, Macmillan said

Walawender said fossil fuel subsidies "far exceeded carbon pricing in the U.S. in 2020, resulting in over $7 billion in net subsidies."

She noted governments around the world have allocated billions of dollars in such subsidies, "often allocating sums equal to substantial portions of national health budgets."

Yes, but: Walawender hopes the Lancet Countdown's evidence, along with young people's push for action and increasingly affordable green solutions becoming available, can spur phasing out fossil fuels and supporting adaptation efforts to better cope with climate change.

Read the report in full, via DocumentCloud:

Lancet Countdown 2023_Report (1)

Go deeper: Climate change altering U.S. in profound ways, major report finds

Climate change report: Heat-related deaths on track to rise 370% by mid-century

"We are already seeing detrimental effects on health, including ... heat-related deaths," study author said.

A person cools off in July in Phoenix, Arizona, which experienced its hottest and driest summer on record this year. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

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Health

A new analysis of countries' climate plans heading into the UN climate summit later this month shows countries are falling short on their emissions pledges.

Why it matters: The accounting of national emissions pledges shows a gap between current emissions pathways and Paris Agreement targets.

This report is designed to inform negotiators at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai, which starts Nov. 30.

"COP28 must be a clear turning point," said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, in a statement.

Driving the news: While many other reports have also pointed to climate and emissions gaps, this one is more comprehensive in its analysis of what are known in the UN system as National Determined Contributions, or NDCs. 

These are each countries' pledges laying out how much they will cut emissions by a particular year, as well as their adaptation plans. 

The analysis clearly shows the distance between what nations are planning — but not required — to do compared with what scientists say needs to be done to forestall potentially disastrous levels of climate change. 

By the numbers: The assessment from the UN climate change office finds that countries are only making "baby steps" in reducing emissions in line with meeting the Paris Agreement's most ambitious target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has shown that greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030, relative to 2019 levels. 

Yet based on countries' stated intentions in their NDCs, and assuming each is fulfilled, emissions would only be cut by just 2% compared to 2019 levels by 2030, the report shows. 

Yes, but: There is some good news on the climate action front, however. The analysis finds that global emissions will peak this decade. 

The intrigue: At COP28, countries are due to grapple with the difference between their emissions commitments to date, and where emissions need to be to limit warming to the Paris targets. 

This status report is called the Global Stocktake, and the hope of many in the climate community is that it forces more significant action to take place on the emissions reduction front. 

What they're saying: "Inch by inch progress will not do," said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, in a statement. "COP28 must be the place to urgently close the climate ambition gap."

U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Countries take "baby steps" toward emissions cuts

There are signs of progress, but not significant or fast enough to meet the Paris targets.

Illustration of smoke coming out of the lenses of binoculars.

A sweeping new federal report finds the effects of climate change are increasingly evident across the U.S., from the Florida Keys to Alaska, and argues for transformational adaptation policies and steep emissions cuts.

Driving the news: The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) shows how warming is rippling across regions and economic sectors, and emphasizes the steps governments are already taking to better adapt.

The report is likely to bolster the U.S.'s case for its own climate policies and the need for further actions at the upcoming COP28 summit in Dubai.

"Overall, we expect climate change to significantly impact the economic opportunities of nearly all American families — affecting their income, what they spend to maintain their standard of living, and the value of their assets, particularly real estate," said Solomon Hsiang of UC Berkeley, the lead author of the economics chapter.

Why it matters: The congressionally-mandated report is the most complete and authoritative look yet at U.S. climate change impacts and responses. It's the product of hundreds of authors from 13 federal agencies and academic experts.

Climate change altering U.S. in profound ways, major report finds

The U.S. is responsible for 17% of current global warming, and is feeling many of its effects.

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