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Tropical Storm Ian, which formed late Friday night over the southern Caribbean, is set to intensify into a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

The big picture: The National Hurricane Center is now predicting Ian will develop into a Category 4 storm within the next 72 hours. Ian's path still is forecast to cross over portions of Cuba and then turn northward into Florida by midweek. 

Ian has an abundant supply of deep, warm water ahead of it, which computer models show is likely to help the storm rapidly intensify. 

In addition, starting later today, little significant wind shear is forecast to affect the storm. 

Shear occurs when winds blow in different directions or speeds with height, and it can prevent a tropical storm from intensifying. 

Zoom in: As of 5pm ET, Tropical Storm Ian was located about 255 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and was moving west at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman Island, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman Island. A previous tropical storm watch issued for Jamaica has been canceled as the storm is expected to miss the island at this time. 

The latest predictions released by the NHC show Ian making landfall somewhere along Florida's western coast on Thursday afternoon. However, the NHC warned Saturday that the "uncertainty in the track forecast is higher than usual." 

"Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast," the 5 p.m. advisory said.

Tropical Storm Ian's forecasted storm path as of 5 p.m. ET on September 24, 2022.

Tropical Storm Ian's forecasted storm path as of 5pm ET on Sept. 24. Credit: NOAA

Threat level: While computer models disagree on the track and precise intensity forecast beyond Monday, this storm poses a significant threat to Florida. 

The prospect of a major hurricane striking Florida in the next several days raises alarm bells, particularly because of the array of decisions that leaders must make in order to successfully evacuate vulnerable areas, such as the Florida Keys. 

In response to the approaching storm, NASA scrubbed its plan for Tuesday's Moon rocket launch from Cape Canaveral on Tuesday. It takes three days to move the massive rocket into the Vehicle Assembly Building. 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has already declared a state of emergency for 24 counties that may be affected by the storm.

Between the lines: On average, hurricane track forecasts for days four and five have errors of about 150 and 200 miles, respectively, the Hurricane Center noted Saturday morning.  

The differences between computer models concern the strength and placement of a dip in the jet stream, also known as a trough, forecast to develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. early in the week. 

The European model has consistently shown the storm gaining strength and curving to the north-northeast over time, across western Cuba and into central or southern Florida late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. 

Computer model projections for Tropical Storm Ian as of Sept. 24.

Computer model projections for Tropical Storm Ian as of Sept. 24. The solid lines are the means of the major computer model runs, while the circle indicates the range of potential tracks. (Tomer Burg)

The main American model, known as the GFS, has been depicting another scenario, with a weaker Ian making a later turn, and threatening areas further to the north in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are flying research aircraft into and around Ian to feed more data into the computer models, hoping to hone in on an accurate prediction. 

Yes, but: The uncertainty notwithstanding, forecasters are urging Floridians to prepare this weekend for a potentially significant hurricane impact, with heavy rains, damaging winds and storm surge flooding. 

Millions of Floridians who flocked to the state in recent years may have never experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane, of Category 3 intensity or greater,  particularly in vulnerable cities such as Tampa and Miami. 

Context: Hurricanes are becoming more intense and damaging from human-caused climate change, which is enabling them to shed heavier amounts of rainfall and stay stronger further north. 

Sea level rise from melting ice sheets makes a hurricane's storm surge more harmful. 

In addition, there is an observed trend toward a greater share of storms in some ocean basins that reach the higher end of the intensity scale, and that rapidly intensify as well. However, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is not expected to increase in a warming world.

So far, the dire predictions for this Atlantic hurricane season have not panned out in terms of storm activity, but that seems to be changing, fast. 

Tropical Storm Ian poised to become Category 4 hurricane, threaten Florida

Officials are urging Floridians to use this weekend to prepare for an intense hurricane to strike.

Tropical Storm Ian as viewed from a NOAA satellite.

Tropical Storm Ian as captured by a NOAA satellite on Sept. 24. Credit: NOAA

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Hurricane-strength Fiona made landfall in Nova Scotia early Saturday and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in eastern Canada. 

Driving the news: More than 540,000 outages were reported in Atlantic Canada, according to utility tracker Poweroutage.com. Almost all of Prince Edward Island's 86,000 customers are among the outages.

Fiona, now considered a post-tropical cyclone, is a "historic, extreme event" for Atlantic Canada, said Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre. 

Threat level: Fiona had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph — the same power of a Category 1 hurricane — Saturday morning, with its center over the Gulf of St. Lawrence after crossing Nova Scotia, the National Hurricane Center said.

It had previously hammered Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic earlier this week, leaving millions of people on the islands without power and causing at least five deaths.

What they're saying: "Across the province, we're hearing reports of damaged trees and power lines as the storm continues to pass through," the Nova Scotia Emergency Management Office tweeted.

Cape Breton's Regional Municipality Mayor and Council have declared a State of Local Emergency. 

Context: Hurricanes are becoming more intense and damaging from human-caused climate change and global warming, enabling them to shed heavier amounts of rainfall and stay stronger further north.

540,000 lose power as Fiona makes landfall in Canada

Fiona is a "historic, extreme event" for Atlantic Canada, a meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre said.

The United Nations General Assembly this week gave hints of a coming clash between developing nations and the industrialized world over how to compensate vulnerable nations that are being hit hardest by climate change.

Why it matters: With climate disasters taking a mounting toll in vulnerable countries, much of the focus at November's COP27 climate summit in Egypt may be on the responsibility of industrialized nations to provide funding to those countries for climate damage they did not cause.

Driving the news: The topic of what is known under the UN climate treaty as "loss and damage" is fraught, particularly with the U.S., since funds going toward compensation are seen by critics as an admission of liability.

Securing the votes in Congress for climate adaptation funding, let alone loss and damage issues, is controversial. This hamstrings U.S. negotiators at climate summits.

Zoom in: UN Secretary-General António Guterres made clear in his speech to world leaders that a successful COP27 outcome must include funding for loss and damage.

He proposed that some of this money come from oil-and-gas companies' "windfall profits" during this time of soaring energy and food costs.

In a video released just before the New York summit, Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, host of COP27, outlined a list of priorities that includes loss and damage.

Such an outcome, Shoukry said, would provide developing countries with "means and resources to avert, minimize and address" such climate consequences.

Between the lines: The Alliance of Small Island States, a coalition of some of the most vulnerable nations to global warming, plans to push at COP27 for the creation of a new multilateral fund for loss and damage under the 1992 UN climate treaty.

Michai Robertson, the alliance's lead negotiator for climate finance, told Axios in an interview that loss and damage are "connected to this concept of climate justice and common responsibility."

He said paying into such a fund is a matter of solidarity. The whole world is experiencing global warming, though some countries are more responsible for causing it than others, he added.

Robertson said he, along with other members of the AOSIS negotiating team, was discouraged by John Kerry, the top U.S. climate diplomat, who at a Tuesday event bristled at a loss and damage fund.

What they're saying: "You can't just set up a [funding] facility in six weeks. Let's be serious about this," Kerry said in response to a loss and damage question.

"Where's the money coming from? Do you think this Republican Congress, where we couldn't get one vote for this legislation, is going to step up and do loss and damage? Good luck."

UN General Assembly previews climate summit conflicts

This fraught topic may take center stage at COP27 in Egypt.

Photo illustration of Gen Guterres in front of bursting shapes, including one filled with images of greenhouse gas emissions

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Mark Baker-Pool/Getty Images

Deadly Hurricane Fiona lashes Bermuda ahead of expected Canada hit

Canadian officials are warning of a "severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec."

A NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Fiona near Bermuda.

Five years after the devastation of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico is reeling from Hurricane Fiona, which unleashed heavy rains, winds and mudslides on the island and left most households without electricity or access to running water.

The big picture: Black and Latino communities in the U.S. have long been burdened by the disproportionate impacts of climate change. Fiona is no exception.

Driving the news: Puerto Rico still hasn’t fully recovered from 2017's Hurricane Maria, which resulted in thousands of deaths and the longest power outage in U.S. history, an Associated Press investigation found.

Now, the island is grappling with what Gov. Pedro Pierluisi calls Fiona’s "catastrophic" damage to its vulnerable infrastructure. Depending on the federal response, the next steps could mitigate existing racial and socioeconomic disparities — or exacerbate them. 

The backstory: Federal disaster relief has long fallen short in measures of equity. Research demonstrates that unequal recovery efforts following extreme disaster events have contributed to lasting racial and social divides.

For starters, communities of color are less likely to receive disaster relief aid, especially when compared to white, affluent households, and the communities they live in, according to FEMA's 2020 National Advisory Council report. 

And a 2018 study published in a journal for the American Sociological Association found that race-based wealth inequality increases with the cost of damages from natural hazards.

The study found that the way FEMA funding was being administered to counties experiencing hazards led to white residents increasing wealth, while Black, Latino and Asian populations lost it. 

Plus, it's most likely to be wealthy white residents — not residents of color — who relocate to less hazard-prone areas after a hurricane, according to a 2016 study examining the impacts of hurricanes on population change in the Gulf Coast between 1970 and 2005.

Hurricanes leave lasting scars by disrupting public health and health care delivery, according to Carlos Rodríguez-Díaz, a public health scientist and associate professor at George Washington University. 

Hospitals shut down, and patients’ care is halted by power outages — a key issue in Puerto Rico following Maria.

There are also dire shortages of medical supplies like saline solution, as well as damage to infrastructure like water and sewage systems — all of which deepens pre-existing health care inequities.

These compound with existing threats, like air pollution, which communities of color are most exposed to due to historic discriminatory practices like redlining and exclusionary housing policies.

Between the lines: Having led on-the-ground research on the aftermath of Maria and its predecessor Irma, and being Puerto Rican himself, Rodríguez-Díaz sees the heavily criticized Trump administration’s response — and the ensuing health care crisis — as a product of systemic racism and the island’s colonization. 

He compares Maria with a nearly simultaneous disaster response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas, which a Politico investigation revealed led to a "faster, and initially, greater" response effort, despite the significantly larger demand and scale of damage in Puerto Rico. 

“How are we going to... [provide] the resources to communities that are living in disaster-prone areas to have options, to live elsewhere without displacement?” Rodríguez-Díaz asked in an interview with Axios. 

Flashback: In 2015, 10 years after Hurricane Katrina, 90% of New Orleans residents had returned — but only 37% of residents from the Lower 9th Ward, a predominantly Black neighborhood, had come back, the liberal Center for American Progress noted in a report. 

Following the storm, Black survivors of Katrina more frequently reported problems with finances, physical and mental health than white survivors, according to the Journal of Black Studies.   

What they’re saying: “People of color and people from low-wealth households don't get the ability to recover, especially if they're in spaces that are constantly faced with disasters,” Cassandra Davis of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill tells Axios.

Davis is currently working with FEMA — through funding from the Department of Homeland Security — on a project examining inequitable distribution of disaster aid. “As we think about recovery, short and long term, they're more likely to be left behind.” 

What we’re watching: By continuing to acknowledge social injustice and focusing on who is being left out of relief — which FEMA addressed in a report earlier this year — pressing gaps in disaster recovery can be filled, according to Davis.

As a first step, Davis hopes that begins with the U.S. emergency response to Fiona. 

The unequal toll of climate disasters

Hurricane Fiona is a reminder that unequal recovery efforts contribute to lasting racial and social divides.

Photo illustration of various people, abstract shapes, plywood texture, and torn paper that resembles a wave.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Hector Retamal/AFP, Lionel Chamoiseau/AFP via Getty Images

Hurricane Fiona strengthened into a Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 130mph, as it moved away from the Turks and Caicos Islands toward Bermuda on Wednesday morning, per the National Hurricane Center.

The big picture: The storm, which has been linked to at least two deaths in Puerto Rico and another in the Dominican Republic, on Tuesday morning became the first major hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. 

It knocked out power to hundreds of thousands in the Dominican Republic and the entire island of Puerto Rico earlier this week. Nearly 1.7 million residents were still without power on Tuesday night, according to poweroutage.us.

What to expect: Fiona was forecast to continue tracking north on Wednesday before turning toward the north-northeast with "an increase in forward speed" expected by Thursday, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory issued at 2am Wednesday.

"On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue to move away from the Turks and Caicos today, and approach Bermuda late on Thursday," the NHC said.

Go deeper: Puerto Rico requests FEMA assistance

Ferocious Hurricane Fiona now a Category 4 storm

The hurricane strengthened as it moved away from the Turks and Caicos Islands toward Bermuda.

A satellite image of Hurricane Fiona over the Turks and Caicos islands.

The historic heat waves that roasted the U.S. and Europe over the summer may have subsided. But a record marine heat wave is gripping large expanses of the North Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans.

The big picture: It has implications for marine species and extreme weather events, including hurricanes, as climate change exacerbates the problem. NOAA scientists warn it shows no signs of immediately abating.

The endangered Hawksbill turtle in the Atlantic Ocean off the Florida coast. 

The endangered Hawksbill turtle in the Atlantic Ocean, off the Florida coast. Photo: Mark Conlin/VW Pics/UIG via Getty Images

Driving the news: "Climate change is making every marine heatwave warmer than the last," research scientist Dillon Amaya, who studies marine heat waves at NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory, tells Axios.

"Climate change increases the mean temperature of the ocean (i.e., global warming)," Amaya says. "Marine heatwaves ride that upward trend and are becoming warmer as a result."

By the numbers: "The North Atlantic is currently something like four degrees Celsius warmer than normal, or at least parts of it are. And you end up seeing similar numbers for the North Pacific as well, it's for about four degrees Celsius warmer than normal," Amaya says.

State of play: Heat wave conditions in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic have lasted for some three months. "For these parts of the world, these temperatures are unprecedented," Amaya says.

Vincent Saba, a fishery biologist at NOAA's Northeast Fisheries Science Center, notes it's "warmed faster in the U.S. Northeast shelf than any other region across the country in the last 15 years."

Fish biomass was still relatively stable, but scientists had observed changes in marine species in the Northwest Atlantic,  Saba said in a phone interview last week.

In the Pacific Ocean, there's a La Niña climate event for the third year in a row. This can lead to warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast Pacific, Amaya said.

Of note: Warming isn't the only impact of climate change.

"We're also talking about an increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the water, which makes the waters more acidic," Saba says. 

"That can impact shelf species like lobster, highly valuable sea scallops. We're still unclear on what those impacts are."

Threat level: "With climate change some marine species will fair better than others," Saba says.

Research suggests warmer water species are staying in the U.S. Northeast for longer, while North Atlantic right whales are foraging in different waters as they follow their plankton prey, which have moved locations — raising concerns about ship collisions and entanglement with fishing gear. 

It's unclear whether this is due to climate change or warming waters, per Saba.

"We've seen major changes in species distributions," he says. "Warmer water species moving north, and a lot of colder water species moving further north out of the system has kind of been the general trend."

Research that Saba and his colleagues have conducted found warmer waters were leading to almost all female sea turtles hatching — though projections indicate the biggest long-term threats will be in hatchling mortality as nests and beaches warm up and erosion from sea level rise destroys nests.

Zoom in: Bette Zirkelbach, manager of the Turtle Hospital in the Florida Keys, said along with the hatchlings issue, she's seen an increased prevalence of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a tumor-causing disease that primarily affects green sea turtles.

In the past 12 months, 70% of about 47 turtles admitted to the hospital with FP were diagnosed with internal tumours and had to be euthanized as there's currently no treatment for internal turmors, Zirkelbach said in a phone interview Tuesday.

"Warmer waters cause these tumours to grow," she said.

Meanwhile, 20 Kemp's ridley sea turtles were flown to the hospital from New England last year after the critically endangered animals stayed too long in Cape Cod Bay instead of moving out with the Gulf Stream.

"The cold weather hits and they get trapped," Zirkelbach said.

What to watch: The marine heat wave isn't just a threat to animals. Models project it may exacerbate the deadly Hurricane Fiona if the storm continues to to track northward and enters the Northwest Atlantic later this week.

If this occurs, it would help Fiona maintain its tropical nature and intensity for longer than if the marine heatwave were not there, Amaya notes. However, "the strong winds and associated upper ocean mixing may help to cool off parts of the ocean that are really warm right now."

The bottom line: To break up the marine heat wave, "the atmospheric wind patterns need to revert back to normal and the ocean would then need time (typically several months) to cool back down without being poked again," Amaya says.

Climate change drives record North Atlantic marine heat wave

"Almost every marine heatwave is warmer than the last because of ... climate change," NOAA scientist says.

 Sea surface temperature anomalies on Sept. 20, in degrees Celsius.

A heat map of sea surface temperature anomalies on Tuesday. Photo: Weatherbell.com

Heat waves

Hurricane Fiona strengthened into a Category 3 storm on Tuesday morning — packing 115 mph winds as it neared the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Threat level: The deadly storm that's the first major hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was continuing to unleash heavy rainfall and "life-threatening" flash flooding on Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic, per a National Hurricane Center 2am update.

The hurricane has been linked to at least two deaths in Puerto Rico and another one in the nearby Dominican Republic.

The big picture: Fiona caused a total power outage when it struck Puerto Rico as a Category 1 storm over the weekend. Nearly 1.3 million residents were still without electricity in the U.S. territory on Tuesday morning, according to poweroutage.us.

After it made landfall in the Dominican Republic on Monday, the strengthening storm knocked out power to more than 700,000 customers, Reuters notes.

The White House said Monday the federal government has deployed 300 personnel to Puerto Rico to assist with response and recovery, and this would "increase substantially" in the coming days once the damage has been assessed.

Of note: Puerto Rico's power grid was already fragile after being severely damaged during Hurricane Maria in 2017.

Go deeper: Three massive storms slam U.S. and Japan, each with climate change ties

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Deadly Hurricane Fiona strengthens into Category 3 storm

The deadly storm is packing 115 mp winds as it approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Fiona

A NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Fiona as it strengthened into a Category 3 storm early on Tuesday. Photo: NOAA

Hurricane Fiona is forecast to become the season's first major hurricane in the Atlantic, as it continues to unleash heavy rains on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

The latest: Fiona, which strengthened into a Category 2 storm Monday,  has killed at least two people — one in Puerto Rico and another in the Dominican Republic, while at least one death has been linked to the widespread power outages Fiona caused in Puerto Rico, AP reports. The 70-year-old man died trying to refill his generator, officials said.

Threat level: Fiona was packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph some 80 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island late Monday, as it dumped heavy rains across Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic — where "life-threatening" flash flooding was likely, per the National Hurricane Center. 

Mudslides and landslides were still a risk for Puerto Rico, the NHC said in an 11pm ET forecast update.

What we're watching: Though Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic have taken the worst hits so far, Fiona was expected to also pose a threat to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as Bermuda. 

The hurricane was expected to develop into a Category 3 storm near the Turks and Caicos by Tuesday morning. 

Data: National Hurricane Center; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

What they're saying: The White House said Monday the federal government has deployed 300 personnel to Puerto Rico to assist with response and recovery.

President Biden spoke with Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi about the federal government's support and the "number of support personnel will increase substantially" in the coming days once damage assessments have been conducted, according to a White House statement.

The big picture: Fiona left over 1.4 million people in Puerto Rico without power on Sunday as it caused an island-wide outage five years after Hurricane Maria struck. Pierluisi said Monday it may be days before power's restored.

Rapidly rising waterways have led rivers to crest at record heights. 

After pummeling Puerto Rico, the hurricane slammed into the Dominican Republic on Monday, triggering mudslides that damaged highways and forced resorts to close.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Hurricane Fiona to be season's first major hurricane in Atlantic

Fiona is strengthening as it continues to unleash heavy rainfall on Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Carribbean.

Photo of a street flooded with water as strong winds blow palm tree leaves backwards

View of a park in Samana, Dominican Republic, on Monday. Photo: Erika Santelices/AFP via Getty Images

Three blockbuster storms struck different coasts this weekend, causing widespread damage in Puerto Rico, Alaska and Japan.

The big picture: Each storm either exhibited unusual characteristics in its formation and intensification or in its interaction with built infrastructure.

Their damage offers examples of what we can expect more of in a rapidly warming world.

In Alaska: The most intense storm ever recorded in the Bering Sea during the month of September blasted communities across a 1,000-mile stretch of Alaska's western coastline with hurricane-force winds and record storm surge flooding. 

The villages hit include names familiar to the climate community for being vulnerable to erosion and seeking to move to higher ground, such as Kivalina and Shishmaref.

Severe flooding was also seen in Nome, the endpoint of the Iditarod sled dog race. The flooding there beat any seen since November 1974.

By battering already vulnerable coastal communities, the storm will make them more susceptible to the Bering Sea's notorious winter storms.

In Puerto Rico: Hurricane Fiona struck on Sunday, causing an island-wide blackout that illustrates the country's challenges with repairing its electrical grid in the wake of Hurricane Maria in 2017.

Hardening infrastructure against increasingly potent extreme weather events is a major challenge facing the U.S.

At one point Sunday evening, nearly the entire island was under a flash flood warning, with "catastrophic" flooding underway.

In Japan: Typhoon Nanmadol, the country's fourth-most intense typhoon to make landfall, struck the island of Kyushu on Sunday morning eastern time.

The storm dropped more than two feet of rain in 24 hours on parts of that island, threatening to cause landslides, along with wind and storm surge flooding.

Climate change is enabling hurricanes and typhoons to dump more rainfall and stay stronger further north.

Prior to its landfall, the storm had rapidly intensified — a process with climate change ties and reached Category 4 intensity.

Zoom in: The Alaska storm has the clearest links to climate change from a physical science standpoint, scientists told Axios.

The storm evolved from Typhoon Merbok, which underwent an unusually rapid and explosive transition process over the North Pacific into a storm that feeds off jet stream energy.

Scientists told Axios the storm's formation, transition and impacts have global warming ties.

Tweet about the size of the Alaska storm.

Between the lines: The typhoon formed unusually far to the east, over anomalously warm waters, said Rick Thoman, a climate scientist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, via email.

It then passed over record warm waters in the North Pacific, which injected more energy.

"This is surely a climate change connection," Thoman said.

Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist based in Alaska, said such intense, out-of-season storms may become more frequent as climate change progresses.

Three massive storms slam U.S. and Japan, each with climate change ties

Of all the storms, the Alaska cyclone was the largest, engulfing the Bering Sea.

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