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Expand chart
Data: SurveyMonkey poll conducted April 2–23, 2018Poll Methodology; Note: "No answer" responses not shown; Chart: Axios Visuals

Democrats have a real shot at winning two of the three Senate seats where Republicans are most vulnerable in the midterm elections, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

The bottom line: The poll provides new evidence that Republicans' hold on the Senate may not be as solid as it once looked. Democrats could win the open Arizona seat and possibly defeat Republican incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada. The third race, in Tennessee, is a statistical tie.

Why it matters: Losing both the House and the Senate to Democrats would be a clear repudiation of President Trump and his brand of Republicanism, as Axios' Mike Allen writes. And Democrats have been clearly outperforming in the special elections since Trump became president.

Yes, but: The overall Senate map in this election still favors the GOP, and an earlier Axios/SurveyMonkey poll showed five Senate Democrats could lose their seats to Republicans. Democrats need to keep the Senate seats they have and gain two more to take control of the Senate.

DACA is the biggest warning sign for Republicans: 64% of voters across all three states support protections for immigrants brought illegally to the U.S. as children, and 71% support offering immigrants a chance to apply for citizenship rather than deporting them.

  • They won't get traction on health care, either: Roughly half of voters in all three states want to fix the Affordable Care Act "so it works better." Only about three in 10 want to repeal it.
  • One sign of hope for Republicans: Despite their vulnerability in these states, nearly half of all voters in the three states think the economy is better off today than it was a year ago.

Methodology: These SurveyMonkey/Axios online polls were conducted April 2- April 23, 2018 among a total sample of 1,667 registered voters living in Arizona, 1,332 registered voters living in Nevada, and 1,639 registered voters living in Tennessee. Respondents were selected from the nearly 3 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate is 4 percentage points for Arizona, 5 percentage points for Nevada, and 4 percentage points for Tennessee. Crosstabs available here.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Tax season nightmare ahead for understaffed IRS

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

The IRS will start accepting 2021 tax returns in less than a week, and the filing delays and administrative headaches to come might eclipse last year — which was “one of the worst filing seasons," according to an independent advocacy agency within the IRS.

Why it matters: For taxpayers, especially with complex or paper filings, this means headaches, delayed refunds, and mistakes.

China builds its own movie empire

Expand chart
Data: Gower Street citing Comscore; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

China blocked all four of Disney's Marvel movies from being released in its theaters last year, a grim sign for U.S. film giants being squeezed out of the world's fastest-growing box office.

Why it matters: The Chinese Communist Party is using domestic films as a key conduit for mass messaging aimed at achieving political goals, leaving little room for foreign views.

Why 401(k) rollovers are so annoying

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

If you happened to change jobs recently, you may have tried to transfer your retirement account from your former employer into an Individual Retirement Account or your new employer's 401(k) plan. If so, you probably encountered a bureaucratic gantlet — and you're not alone.

Why it matters: Kludgey processes around retirement account transfers result in people losing track of their funds, giving up important tax advantages, or otherwise disadvantaging themselves and being less prepared for retirement.