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Expand chart
Data: SurveyMonkey poll conducted April 2–23, 2018Poll Methodology; Note: "No answer" responses not shown; Chart: Axios Visuals

Democrats have a real shot at winning two of the three Senate seats where Republicans are most vulnerable in the midterm elections, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

The bottom line: The poll provides new evidence that Republicans' hold on the Senate may not be as solid as it once looked. Democrats could win the open Arizona seat and possibly defeat Republican incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada. The third race, in Tennessee, is a statistical tie.

Why it matters: Losing both the House and the Senate to Democrats would be a clear repudiation of President Trump and his brand of Republicanism, as Axios' Mike Allen writes. And Democrats have been clearly outperforming in the special elections since Trump became president.

Yes, but: The overall Senate map in this election still favors the GOP, and an earlier Axios/SurveyMonkey poll showed five Senate Democrats could lose their seats to Republicans. Democrats need to keep the Senate seats they have and gain two more to take control of the Senate.

DACA is the biggest warning sign for Republicans: 64% of voters across all three states support protections for immigrants brought illegally to the U.S. as children, and 71% support offering immigrants a chance to apply for citizenship rather than deporting them.

  • They won't get traction on health care, either: Roughly half of voters in all three states want to fix the Affordable Care Act "so it works better." Only about three in 10 want to repeal it.
  • One sign of hope for Republicans: Despite their vulnerability in these states, nearly half of all voters in the three states think the economy is better off today than it was a year ago.

Methodology: These SurveyMonkey/Axios online polls were conducted April 2- April 23, 2018 among a total sample of 1,667 registered voters living in Arizona, 1,332 registered voters living in Nevada, and 1,639 registered voters living in Tennessee. Respondents were selected from the nearly 3 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate is 4 percentage points for Arizona, 5 percentage points for Nevada, and 4 percentage points for Tennessee. Crosstabs available here.

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
35 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden's "overwhelming force" doctrine

President-elect Biden arrives to introduce his science team in Wilmington yesterday. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

President-elect Biden has ordered up a shock-and-awe campaign for his first days in office to signal, as dramatically as possible, the radical shift coming to America and global affairs, his advisers tell us. 

The plan, Part 1 ... Biden, as detailed in a "First Ten Days" memo from incoming chief of staff Ron Klain, plans to unleash executive orders, federal powers and speeches to shift to a stark, national plan for "100 million shots" in three months.

Off the Rails

Episode 2: Barbarians at the Oval

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 2: Trump stops buying what his professional staff are telling him, and increasingly turns to radical voices telling him what he wants to hear. Read episode 1.

President Trump plunked down in an armchair in the White House residence, still dressed from his golf game — navy fleece, black pants, white MAGA cap. It was Saturday, Nov. 7. The networks had just called the election for Joe Biden.

Fringe right plots new attacks out of sight

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Domestic extremists are using obscure and private corners of the internet to plot new attacks ahead of Inauguration Day. Their plans are also hidden in plain sight, buried in podcasts and online video platforms.

Why it matters: Because law enforcement was caught flat-footed during last week's Capitol siege, researchers and intelligence agencies are paying more attention to online threats that could turn into real-world violence.