Updated Mar 8, 2018

Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Democrats

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The political risk of overturning the ACA

Data: Urban Institute Health Policy Center; Note: Uninsured rate is among the nonelderly population. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Swing states and red states stand to lose the most if the courts ultimately throw out the Affordable Care Act, according to a new analysis by the Urban Institute.

Why it matters: President Trump and Republican attorneys general could pay a steep political price if they succeed in their quest to kill the law.

Go deeperArrowDec 20, 2019 - Health

Census data projects shift in states' congressional power

Data: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data; Table: Naema Ahmed/Axios

California is projected to lose a congressional seat for the first time next year, while states President Trump won such as Texas and Florida will likely gain seats, according to an analysis of new Census data by the Brookings Institution's William Frey.

Why it matters: It only takes a handful of seats to shift a party's power in Congress for a decade. The new data underscores the need for an accurate 2020 Census count, especially with changing demographics in states with booming populations such as Florida, Texas and Arizona.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Dec 30, 2019

2024 lookahead poll: GOP voters eye Trump dynasty

Data: Online SurveyMonkey poll (Margin of error: ±2.5 percentage points). Chart: Axios Visuals

Ready to skip 2020 and go straight to 2024? In a SurveyMonkey poll for Axios, Republican voters chose children of President Trump — Don Jr. and Ivanka — as two of the top four picks for president in four years.

  • Why it matters: An early poll like this is largely a measure of name ID. But it's also a vivid illustration of just how strong Trump's brand is with the GOP.
Go deeperArrowUpdated Jan 4, 2020