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President Trump’s Monday morning tweets confirm that he’s going into this week’s NATO summit ready to berate our allies for spending too little on defense. 

The real story: While European defense spending has fallen in recent decades, the U.S. has also drastically reduced its own military commitment to NATO since the Cold War. Europe was largely de-militarized in the 1990s, and every NATO member, including the U.S., took advantage of it.

Trump has focused on Germany’s defense budget, and he may know that Germany’s army — at 175,000 troops — is only half what it was 25 years ago. But the U.S. presence in Europe is down even more — 75% across the board, including troops, planes, ships, tanks and bases. (Tank numbers were actually down to zero in 2013; they started returning two years ago.) 

Where it stands: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 was a wake-up call for NATO, and almost every member answered it, pledging to increase defense spending up to 2% of GDP within a decade. Since then, European NATO members as a group have increased their military budgets by more than 10%. (The U.S. figure is essentially the same.) Germany’s increase last year was 6%, which Chancellor Merkel admitted this weekend was “not nearly enough.”  Meanwhile, the Pentagon has proposed a $1.7 billion funding increase next year for military upgrades that it says will help to deter Russia — but that’s not nearly enough to do so, either. 

The big picture: For a quarter of a century, NATO members, the U.S. included, acted as though European security wasn’t a serious problem. Now, they’ve decided it is. The alliance has adjusted slowly to this new reality, but budgets, capabilities, deployments and strategies are all changing. This week’s summit presents a chance to lock in a new consensus, but the opportunity may pass if Trump doesn’t acknowledge it.  

Stephen Sestanovich is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and author of “Maximalist: America in the World from Truman to Obama.”

Despite Trump’s attacks on NATO members, U.S. support also down

Every NATO member's defense spending has decreased since the Cold War.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel sits down after she gave a government declaration at the Bundestag ahead of the upcoming E.U. and NATO summits on June 28, 2018 in Berlin, Germany. 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel after giving a declaration at the Bundestag ahead of the upcoming EU and NATO summits on June 28, 2018, in Berlin, Germany. Photo: Michele Tantussi via Getty Images

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President Trump’s Monday morning <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tweets" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1016289620596789248" data-vars-content-id="0a318253-cb27-4ee4-90b8-7808e7828ab6" data-vars-headline="Despite Trump’s attacks on NATO members, U.S. support also down" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1016289620596789248" target="_blank">tweets</a> confirm that he’s going into this week’s NATO summit ready to berate our allies for spending too little on defense. The real story: While European defense spending has fallen in recent decades, the U.S. has also drastically reduced its own military commitment to NATO since the Cold War. Europe was largely de-militarized in the 1990s, and every NATO member, including the U.S., took advantage of it.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

National Security Advisor John Bolton will travel to Moscow later this week to nail down a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The scheduling will be easy; the summit agenda itself, much harder.

The big picture: No issue divides Trump and his advisers more than Russia. He wants to “get along” with Putin; they object to one Russian policy after another. But the Singapore summit showed Trump’s inner circle how to solve this problem: Give the boss a showy, feel-good session he can call a breakthrough and leave the important business for a senior official to handle later.

The agenda: Bolton has said publicly what he thinks has to be discussed with the Russians. Better relations, he told the Russian ambassador, Anatoly Antonov, in April, depend on addressing the following U.S. concerns: Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, Ukraine, Syria and chemical weapons use in the U.K. But progress on these issues is unlikely (and the Trump doesn’t want to talk about the first item at all!).

Instead, both Trump and Putin have identified “the arms race” as the problem that requires their urgent attention. (It’s “getting out of control,” Trump has claimed, and Putin has agreed.) If Bolton is listening to his boss, he’ll make this issue the centerpiece of the summit.

John Bolton is a natural choice to take on the U.S.–Russian nuclear portfolio. He an arms control expert, and after the summit — particularly with Mike Pompeo handling North Korea and the president waging a trade war — he is likely to have these issues to himself. That too will fit the Singapore model: If he is in charge of the talks, Bolton — who hates arms control agreements with a passion — can walk back any “mistakes” Trump makes.

The bottom line: Bolton’s aim in the run-up to a summit will be to let Trump claim something really big has happened. In the detailed talks that follow, he can make sure nothing does.

Bolton tees up a Trump-Putin summit

With many issues too controversial to raise, the "arms race" will likely take center stage.

John Bolton carrying luggage and umbrella

National Security Advisor John Bolton. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Russia

National Security Advisor John Bolton will travel to Moscow later this week to nail down a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The scheduling will be easy; the summit agenda itself, much harder.The big picture: No issue divides Trump and his advisers more than Russia. He wants to “get along” with Putin; they object to one Russian policy after another. But the Singapore summit showed Trump’s inner circle how to solve this problem: Give the boss a showy, feel-good session he can call a breakthrough and leave the important business for a senior official to handle later.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The foreign ministers of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine met in Berlin today to take another stab at peace in Ukraine. The U.S. is not represented, but President Trump’s presence will likely be felt in ways that he didn’t intend — and that Vladimir Putin will not appreciate.

The big picture: President Trump’s suggestion that Russia be re-invited to meetings between the leading Western democracies got this year’s G7 summit in Quebec off to a tumultuous start. Like his previous attempts to improve relations with Putin, Trump’s latest diplomatic effort was so ham-handed that it will likely make international cooperation more fraught, even for Russia.

If the idea was to bring Putin back into the club, then Trump’s effort was an immediate failure. All it got him was a reminder from the other leaders about why Russia was kicked out in the first place: its aggression against Ukraine. 

The impact: With his abrupt and imperious call to bring Putin back into the diplomatic fold, Trump has made European leaders who might be formulating their own overtures to Moscow look as though they’re taking orders from a deeply unpopular American president. Putin will now find it harder to patch things up with Europe, put the Ukraine issue behind him and get back into the club. Across Europe, pro-Putin populist parties find themselves associated with a tarnished brand.

How Trump’s G7 call for readmission could misfire for Russia

Putin will now find it harder to patch things up with Europe.

Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau and wife Sophie Gregoire greet President Trump during the G7 official welcome on June 8, 2018 in Quebec City. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and wife Sophie Gregoire greet President Trump at the G7 meeting on June 8, 2018 in Quebec City. Photo: Leon Neal via Getty Images

Group of 7 (G7)

The foreign ministers of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="met in Berlin today" data-vars-click-url="https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/germany/events/article/ministerial-meeting-in-the-normandy-format-berlin-11-06-18" data-vars-content-id="77cbce7e-5a37-4367-9c15-80a65c533f52" data-vars-headline="How Trump’s G7 call for readmission could misfire for Russia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/germany/events/article/ministerial-meeting-in-the-normandy-format-berlin-11-06-18" target="_blank">met in Berlin today</a> to take another stab at peace in Ukraine. The U.S. is not represented, but President Trump’s presence will likely be felt in ways that he didn’t intend — and that Vladimir Putin will not appreciate.The big picture: President Trump’s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="suggestion that Russia be re-invited" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-calls-for-russia-to-be-reinstated-in-g7-ba251f1c-6cc7-471e-acff-556ecaa651b8.html" data-vars-content-id="77cbce7e-5a37-4367-9c15-80a65c533f52" data-vars-headline="How Trump’s G7 call for readmission could misfire for Russia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-calls-for-russia-to-be-reinstated-in-g7-ba251f1c-6cc7-471e-acff-556ecaa651b8.html" target="_self">suggestion that Russia be re-invited</a> to meetings between the leading Western democracies got this year’s G7 summit in Quebec off to a tumultuous start. Like his previous attempts to improve relations with Putin, Trump’s latest diplomatic effort was so ham-handed that it will likely make international cooperation more fraught, even for Russia.

President Trump humiliated himself in the press conference that followed his meetings with Russian president Vladimir Putin — there's little argument about that. His comments on election meddling have produced a storm of outrage. But were they a significant win for Putin?

The big picture. It’s right to be appalled by Trump’s performance. Yet after Russian officials are done gloating, they may find the results a little disappointing.

As a forum for problem-solving, the summit was a near-total dud, without even limited steps forward on Ukraine, Syria or nuclear arms control. Both presidents mentioned small examples of this kind — from humanitarian relief in Syria to meetings of CEOs and some sort of unspecified coordination in global energy markets. All those issues now await discussions between senior advisers.

Yes, but: Even that prospect looks iffy. The overwhelming criticism of Trump’s comments will inevitably complicate the follow-up. The Russian government wants re-admission to Western polite society, with official contacts at all levels becoming routine and, above all, legitimate. Now all those in the Trump administration, national-security bureaucracy, Congress, and GOP establishment who have harbored doubts about Trump's affinity for Putin will have more room to maneuver.

What to watch: All the items on the Trump-Putin to-do list will now have to run a bureaucratic gauntlet. Don’t look for urgency. Bilateral discussions, when they occur, will have a narrower agenda. Congressional disapproval will be felt.

The bottom line: Moscow commentators have been saying they thought Trump finally had the support he needed to open a new phase in relations. They’re now likely to see he has further isolated himself.

Stephen Sestanovich is a professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Maximalist: America in the World from Truman to Obama.”

With Trump more isolated on Russia, Putin could see few gains from summit

Domestic pushback will leave Trump little leeway in follow-up talks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hands U.S. President Donald Trump a World Cup football during a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hands President Donald Trump a World Cup soccer ball at their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki. Photo: Chris McGrath via Getty Images

Trump-Putin summit

President Trump humiliated himself in the press conference that followed his meetings with Russian president Vladimir Putin — there&#x27;s little argument about that. His comments on election meddling have produced a storm of outrage. But were they a significant win for Putin?The big picture. It’s right to be appalled by Trump’s performance. Yet after Russian officials are done gloating, they may find the results a little disappointing.

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With Trump more isolated on Russia, Putin could see few gains from summit

Despite Trump’s attacks on NATO members, U.S. support also down

Bolton tees up a Trump-Putin summit

How Trump’s G7 call for readmission could misfire for Russia