National

As electric vehicles proliferate, it is increasingly urgent to address limitations of the U.S. electrical grid and anticipate the effects of fully autonomous vehicles on charging strategies and infrastructure.

The big picture: Driven by market forces, tightening emissions rules and environmental concerns, automakers are introducing nearly 100 hybrid and electric vehicle models through 2022 — and many have an eye toward electric AVs eventually.

What's happening: Electrify America, Tesla and a recently announced GM–Bechtel partnership, among others, are building thousands of electric charging stations, most near commercial activity, along major interstates or at transit hubs.

Roughly 150,000 U.S. gas stations could also offer electric charging. The petroleum lobby has largely resisted this, but a new Chevron charging pilot could signal change.

But, but, but: Over a million electric vehicles have been sold in the U.S. As of March, there were 63,303 charging stations, a large percentage of them in California.

The annual growth rate of public charging stations has plateaued at around 20% over the last 5 years, but the ratio of EVs per station is climbing from about 6 EVs per station in 2012 to an expected 28 per station in 2021.

Even if charging stations are widely distributed, regional and local electricity suppliers will need to find a way to meet demand for EVs charging at unpredictable rates and times without causing brownouts or blown transformers.

What we're watching: Battery improvements will certainly help, and “quick-charge” speeds are dropping to mere minutes.

Super-fast charging, though, is expected to demand huge amounts of power. A station with 20 fast-charging units could draw as much as six megawatts of power — the same as a typical small town.

Dynamic induction, the wireless charging of moving vehicles, could also be useful for stretches of highway.

AVs will theoretically be able to navigate to charging stations or charge through induction, which could help to distribute energy demand

Home-based systems — which most EV drivers currently use for the majority of their charging — can also take pressure off of charging stations.

The bottom line: EV penetration could be stifled without significant, large-scale investment in charging infrastructure and advanced charging technology that can keep pace with EV adoption.

Jim Barbaresso is SVP of intelligent transportation systems at HNTB, an infrastructure advisory firm.

Electric vehicles are outstripping the supply of charging stations

A lack of infrastructure investment could slow EV adoption.

Illustration of a power line struggling under the weight of electrical wires

Transportation

Electric vehicles

Expert Voices

Technology

Energy

As electric vehicles proliferate, it is increasingly urgent to address limitations of the U.S. electrical grid and anticipate the effects of fully autonomous vehicles on charging strategies and infrastructure.The big picture: Driven by market forces, tightening emissions rules and environmental concerns, automakers are introducing <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="nearly 100 hybrid and electric vehicle models" data-vars-click-url="https://www.autonews.com/article/20181001/OEM04/181009990/nearly-100-electrified-models-slated-to-arrive-through-2022" data-vars-content-id="024a7be4-b185-4111-829f-9c51afd3ab31" data-vars-headline="Electric vehicles are outstripping the supply of charging stations" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.autonews.com/article/20181001/OEM04/181009990/nearly-100-electrified-models-slated-to-arrive-through-2022" target="_blank">nearly 100 hybrid and electric vehicle models</a> through 2022 — and many have an eye toward electric AVs eventually.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Cities are adopting tolling and closed-loop shuttle buses to mitigate traffic, to integrate AVs into public transit, and to prepare for the possibility that AVs used in ride-hailing could exacerbate urban congestion. 

The big picture: Reducing congestion in densely populated, trafficked metro areas will require distributing people more strategically across transit options and routes.

New York City recently announced a plan to charge a toll on vehicles entering Manhattan south of 61st Street. The revenue would be used to improve transit services in the city, in particular the city's 100-year-old subway system.

San Francisco's Treasure Island, a former Naval Air Station in San Francisco Bay, is the site of an expansive new development that includes 8,000 new residential units.  Transportation plans include tolling and an autonomous circulator shuttle around the island that connects to public transit.

Jacksonville, Florida, has plans for a fleet of autonomous circulator buses to connect the city’s downtown and surrounding neighborhoods. Ideally, these buses will eliminate the need for people to drive or hail AVs for short trips downtown, minimizing congestion.

What we're watching: Two tools for managing traffic could be especially helpful when AVs are eventually deployed, and could complement existing efforts.

Congestion pricing, as New York has proposed, uses tolling to dissuade vehicles from entering certain districts during select hours. In London, Singapore and Stockholm, electronic mechanisms mounted above roads and highways collect fees as cars approach the center of the city.

Tolling AVs could encourage shared rides and reliance on other transit options, which would keep congestion in check. It could also serve to replace funds from fuel taxes, which won’t apply to electrically powered AVs.

Optimization software can distribute vehicles across various routes, like Waze does today, to help alleviate congestion.

It could also minimize the frequency of passenger-less trips that ride-hailing AVs must make to pick up new passengers.

The bottom line: Cities will need to take multiple approaches to addressing congestion and encouraging new transportation patterns in advance of AVs. The cities starting to experiment now will likely be best positioned to adapt. 

Cities are experimenting with ways to reduce traffic ahead of AVs

New York and San Francisco are considering tolls, among other strategies.

Night view of Times Square in New York City with cars in traffic

Times Square in New York City. Photo: Roberto Machado Noa/LightRocket via Getty Images

Urban planning

Cities are adopting tolling and closed-loop shuttle buses to mitigate traffic, to integrate AVs into public transit, and to prepare for the possibility that AVs used in ride-hailing could <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="exacerbate urban congestion" data-vars-click-url="https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/611557/self-driving-cars-could-make-urban-traffic-jams-worse/" data-vars-content-id="59f15853-0423-44b0-ad0b-455dc36f85a4" data-vars-headline="Cities are experimenting with ways to reduce traffic ahead of AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/611557/self-driving-cars-could-make-urban-traffic-jams-worse/" target="_blank">exacerbate urban congestion</a>. The big picture: Reducing congestion in densely <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="populated" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/upshot/seattle-climbs-but-austin-sprawls-the-myth-of-the-return-to-cities.html" data-vars-content-id="59f15853-0423-44b0-ad0b-455dc36f85a4" data-vars-headline="Cities are experimenting with ways to reduce traffic ahead of AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/upshot/seattle-climbs-but-austin-sprawls-the-myth-of-the-return-to-cities.html" target="_blank">populated</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="trafficked" data-vars-click-url="https://www.brookings.edu/research/traffic-why-its-getting-worse-what-government-can-do/" data-vars-content-id="59f15853-0423-44b0-ad0b-455dc36f85a4" data-vars-headline="Cities are experimenting with ways to reduce traffic ahead of AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/traffic-why-its-getting-worse-what-government-can-do/" target="_blank">trafficked</a> metro areas will require distributing people more strategically across transit options and routes.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

The Highway Trust Fund, which finances road repairs, construction, and more, is paid for by the federal fuel tax — but will need a new funding model as EVs proliferate, because EV owners won't pay for fuel.

Why it matters: For years, the Highway Trust Fund has barely avoided bankruptcy, saved by marginal increases in vehicle miles driven and by cash infusions. This system will be unsustainable if EVs continue to grow in popularity.

What's happening: EV driving ranges are getting longer, charging times are getting shorter, and demand for zero-emissions vehicles is growing stronger. 

Major automakers plan to launch as many as 100 new electric vehicle (EV) models by 2023 to meet growing customer demand.

What they're saying: A handful of potential solutions to the waning funding problem are under consideration.

Raising the federal gas tax could act as a stop-gap solution, though it could inadvertently accelerate EV popularity. Meanwhile, improving fuel efficiency could chip away at this solution as well. 

Interstate tolling could incorporate existing toll technology and put gas- and electric-powered vehicles on equal funding footing.

EV-specific fees, as in California, Minnesota and Tennessee, are currently not enough to offset lost fuel taxes. Raising them too high could dissuade some drivers from making the switch.

The most workable solution has been mileage-based. A car owner would pay a fee based on the number of miles their vehicle travels, and gas-powered vehicles could get a rebate to offset fuel taxes. 

How it works: Oregon has pioneered this promising concept, and several other states have launched their own pilots.

But, but, but: While a mileage-based solution has surpassed alternatives in popularity, even proponents have voiced concern about government tracking their every move to calculate the user fee.

Additionally, the privacy and data security of car owners must be protected. 

What to watch: The pending transportation funding authorization package in Congress includes provisions for pilots of mileage-based fee systems. 

A mileage-based tax could rescue the Highway Trust Fund

The current funding model relies on a fuel tax, but EV owners don't pay for fuel.

Illustration of an electric car charging pump with a dollar bill as the prong. 

The Highway Trust Fund, which finances road repairs, construction, and more, is paid for by the federal fuel tax — but will need a new funding model as EVs proliferate, because EV owners won&#x27;t pay for fuel.Why it matters: For years, the Highway Trust Fund has barely avoided bankruptcy, saved by marginal increases in vehicle miles driven and by cash infusions. This system will be unsustainable if EVs continue to grow in popularity.

The AV industry has largely focused on the best technology for the cars themselves, not the roadblocks that current infrastructure will present to their deployment.

Why it matters: We may soon find ourselves with functional AV technology, but infrastructure so poor that in many places AVs cannot be safely deployed. The U.S. needs both basic improvements to its roads — to the tune of as much as $1 trillion — and also investment in a new generation of infrastructure that is smarter, more responsive and more sustainable.

Details: Beyond basic roadway repairs and improving visibility of road signs, several infrastructure improvements would have a particularly large impact.

Pavement with higher stress points will be crucial. AVs don’t drift in their lanes as much as human drivers do, so wear and tear will be focused on a fraction of the road. And connected semi-trucks traveling in"platoons" will give pavement less time to recover due to close following distances.

Recharging facilities and curbside parking will be necessary for ride-share fleets of electric AVs.

Vehicle-to-infrastructure connectivity would allow AVs to pull data from the environment immediately around them, enhancing situational awareness. At a work zone, for example, connected barriers and signs could create a geo-fence that automatically slows down AVs and transmits navigation details for alternate routes.

What’s needed: To develop integrated solutions, automakers, tech innovators and infrastructure providers have to expand their collaborative efforts and include telecommunications, big data, energy and financial companies.

Where it stands: Some public-private collaborations are already underway.  

Michigan's American Center for Mobility provides a complex and flexible roadway environment for testing AVs, but also for evaluating infrastructure solutions to support automated driving systems. ACM includes configurable urban, rural and highway environments.

Smart Columbus, another public-private partnership, is piloting AV technology on city streets to evaluate how vehicles interact with signs, traffic signals, pedestrian crossings, transit stops, complex intersections and other infrastructure.

As AV technology advances, infrastructure needs to catch up

It will have to be smarter, more responsive and more sustainable.

Illustrated collage including elements of road infrastructure

Infrastructure

The AV industry has largely focused on the best technology for the cars themselves, not the roadblocks that current infrastructure will present to their deployment.Why it matters: We may soon find ourselves with functional AV technology, but infrastructure so poor that in many places AVs cannot be safely deployed. The U.S. needs both basic improvements to its roads — to the tune of as much as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="$1 trillion" data-vars-click-url="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-infrastructure-falling-apart-2017-2" data-vars-content-id="8a2bd15a-b5bc-4871-87be-83d6aa77f5b3" data-vars-headline="As AV technology advances, infrastructure needs to catch up" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-infrastructure-falling-apart-2017-2" target="_blank">$1 trillion</a> — and also investment in a new generation of infrastructure that is smarter, more responsive and more sustainable.

Ride-share congestion at airports, stadiums and shopping malls may be foreshadowing the chaos at popular destinations if AVs begin making most pickups and dropoffs.

The big picture: As transportation options diversify to include more car-sharing, ride-sharing and AVs, cities will need to invest in new infrastructure to keep traffic flowing safely and smoothly at transportation hubs and other high-activity areas.
 

Background: Curbside management has become an issue, as ride-sharing has elevated accident risk and traffic congestion in pickup and dropoff zones. A proliferation of passenger AVs in urban areas could compound the problem.

In the short term, the "polite behaviors" of AVs, like yielding when cut off, could encourage drivers to more aggressively jockey for prized space on the road.

Longer term, “door-t0-door” service requests could overwhelm popular destinations, leading to designated dropoff points farther from destinations. 

Where it stands: Many airports and large venues already have designated ride-sharing zones and systems of lanes and signage to help maintain order. But they will need to convert parking space into zones for loading and other uses, such as recharging areas that can be leased to AV fleet operators. These solutions could address congestion and also make up for venue losses in parking revenue.

Some airports and cities are currently exploring replacing their existing Automated People Mover systems with shared-use AVs that would operate on existing roads in order to save operational costs.

What's next: Eventually, high-density venues may opt for more distant dropoff zones connected to the venue by electric autonomous shuttles. These could provide "last-mile" transport and cut emissions levels.

In the near term, areas with needs for new parking garages should build them with this future in mind, so that the garages can be more easily converted to offices, apartments or other spaces as the need for parking declines.

How to prevent AV curbside chaos

Cities will need new infrastructure for busy hubs.

Traffic

Ride-share congestion at airports, stadiums and shopping malls may be foreshadowing the chaos at popular destinations if AVs begin making most pickups and dropoffs.The big picture: As transportation options diversify to include more car-sharing, ride-sharing and AVs, cities will need to invest in new infrastructure to keep traffic flowing safely and smoothly at transportation hubs and other high-activity areas.

Jim Barbaresso

Stories

A mileage-based tax could rescue the Highway Trust Fund

Electric vehicles are outstripping the supply of charging stations

Cities are experimenting with ways to reduce traffic ahead of AVs

How to prevent AV curbside chaos

As AV technology advances, infrastructure needs to catch up