National

As the U.S. population ages, the number of people with travel-limiting disabilities is projected to increase dramatically, which could drive up demand for accessible autonomous vehicles. 

The big picture: Retirement communities are expecting an influx of new residents, many of whom are likely to be non-drivers and require transportation to maintain their independence. The demand for AVs, if they're accessible, could explode.

Between 2010 and 2014, the U.S. wheelchair-using population increased by 50.4% to 5.5 million, and is projected to hit 12.4 million by 2022.

Demand for wheelchair-accessible vehicles is growing 10.75% per year.

Context: Retirement communities have significant populations of non-drivers, and are naturally geofenced areas.

The closed-circuit design, predictable traffic patterns, and low-speed limits of retirement communities could make them ideal for deploying AVs — even sooner than they may be deployed on public roads.

Yes, but: Providing senior citizens with reliable, effective service will depend on vehicle accessibility — and retirement communities will need not only wheelchair-accessible vehicles, but potentially vehicles that can accommodate more than one wheelchair. 

What we're watching: Two players in the AV space are already eyeing the retirement community opportunity:

Voyage, an AV company focused on senior citizen mobility, is launching its test operations at The Villages retirement community in central Florida.

Waymo has launched operations in Phoenix, which is one of the top markets for senior living because of its sunny climate and low-priced housing stock.

Henry Claypool is a policy expert affiliated with UCSF and AAPD, and a former director of the U.S. Health and Human Services Office on Disability.

An aging population could increase demand for autonomous vehicles

The number of Americans with travel-limiting disabilities is on the rise.

Illustration of a pocket watch with a car reflected in its face

Transportation

Aging

Expert Voices

As the<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" U.S. population ages" data-vars-click-url="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html" data-vars-content-id="b6a9b58e-b073-4151-98bf-5365a5e5ada0" data-vars-headline="An aging population could increase demand for autonomous vehicles" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html" target="_blank"> U.S. population ages</a>, the number of people with travel-limiting disabilities<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" is projected to increase dramatically" data-vars-click-url="https://www.analysisgroup.com/globalassets/content/news_and_events/news/assessing_unmet_transportation_needs.pdf" data-vars-content-id="b6a9b58e-b073-4151-98bf-5365a5e5ada0" data-vars-headline="An aging population could increase demand for autonomous vehicles" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.analysisgroup.com/globalassets/content/news_and_events/news/assessing_unmet_transportation_needs.pdf" target="_blank"> is projected to increase dramatically</a>, which could drive up demand for accessible autonomous vehicles. The big picture: Retirement communities are expecting an influx of new residents, many of whom are likely to be non-drivers and require transportation to maintain their independence. The demand for AVs, if they&#x27;re accessible, could explode.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Ride-sharing options are scarce for people who use wheelchairs or have other travel limitations — and the need is likely to grow as the U.S. population ages.

Why it matters: With accessible ride-sharing, AV companies could expand travel options for as many as 15.4 million people who have the means to use ride-sharing services but limited opportunities.

Background: Research commissioned by the American Association of People with Disabilities found that of the 18.5 million Americans with travel limitations (5.7% of the U.S. population), between 11.2 and 15.4 million have the means to afford ride-sharing options. But this group — which includes people with impaired vision, people with epilepsy, older adults and people who use mobility devices — is desperately underserved.

Travel-limited people are 6 times more likely to live in a household without a vehicle. Motorized-wheelchair users are 8 times more likely.

Among travel-limited individuals, 5.7 million use wheelchairs and 1.7 million use a motorized wheelchair. 

Most major U.S. cities have fewer than 13 paratransit vehicles for every 100,000 residents.

Where it stands: Even in large metropolitan areas, the current supply of wheelchair-accessible vehicles is too low to provide reliable, on-demand transportation. This lack of supply cuts across public transit, private transportation companies like Uber, and taxi services.

VW, Toyota and Renault have concept AVs that could accommodate wheelchair users.

Accessibility features for blind people embedded in the Android and iOS smartphone operating systems, along with application developer tools, could be programmed into  human-machine interfaces in AVs.

What we're watching: The market for accessible AVs is large and projected to grow. The U.S. wheelchair-using population is expected to grow 120% by 2022, and the Census Bureau projects that by 2030 an additional 21.5 million Americans over age 55 will need alternatives to driving themselves.

Henry Claypool is a policy expert affiliated with UCSF and the American Association of People with Disabilities, and a former director of the U.S. Health and Human Services Office on Disability.

The market for accessible AVs is growing

As many as 15.4 million Americans can afford ride-sharing, but have limited options.

A man using a wheelchair hails a taxi. Photo: Education Images/UIG via Getty Images

Accessibility

Ride-sharing options are scarce for people who use wheelchairs or have other travel limitations — and the need is likely to grow as the U.S. population ages.Why it matters: With accessible ride-sharing, AV companies could expand travel options for as many as 15.4 million people who have the means to use ride-sharing services but limited opportunities.

Even as ridesharing companies expand their offerings and look towards AV deployment, many people with disabilities are still unable to access today's shared vehicles. 

Why it matters: Ridesharing companies, such as Uber and Lyft, formed their business models and then — belatedly, allege critics — began addressing accessibility challenges, a strategy that could hinder disability access to AVs in the future.  

The big picture: Ridesharing companies have promoted the idea that they are a transportation boon to people with disabilities, just as AV companies are doing today. But ridesharing has had mixed results for people with disabilities.

For many who cannot get a driver's license because of epilepsy, for example, ridesharing has increased mobility.  

Drivers sometimes do not allow service animals into the car, though, which can result in drivers refusing service to people who are blind.

Wheelchair accessible vehicles (WAVs) are unavailable via ridesharing in most markets, or available in few numbers, which can result in lengthy wait times.

What's happening: Ridesharing companies have adopted policies that punish drivers for discriminating against people with disabilities. However, the companies still argue that they merely connect people seeking rides to people that operate vehicles, taking little responsibility for the quality of service that drivers provide. 

Between the lines: How Uber and Lyft prioritize and address accessibility now will have lasting impacts as they expand their transportation offerings, including introducing AVs. 

What we're watching: Uber’s recent launch of limited WAV service in certain markets is a step forward, but still does not offer equal access for all. Ridesharing companies need to expand access to new mobility options as they develop and deploy them — otherwise, access to new transportation tech will remain unequal.

Ridesharing's accessibility struggles could have consequences for AVs

Critics allege that Uber and Lyft waited too long to address accessibility challenges.

A van with Lyft and Uber window stickers moves through traffic in Manhattan

A car with Lyft and Uber window stickers moves through traffic in Manhattan. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Even as ridesharing companies expand their offerings and look towards AV deployment, many people with disabilities are still unable to access today&#x27;s shared vehicles. Why it matters: Ridesharing companies, such as Uber and Lyft, formed their business models and then — <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="belatedly" data-vars-click-url="https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/23/17384600/uber-lyft-wheelchair-accessible-fail-nyc-report" data-vars-content-id="ef72f500-d7ad-4a7b-9da3-6ff7c1f1224a" data-vars-headline="Ridesharing&#x27;s accessibility struggles could have consequences for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/23/17384600/uber-lyft-wheelchair-accessible-fail-nyc-report" target="_blank">belatedly</a>, allege critics — began addressing accessibility challenges, a strategy that could hinder disability access to AVs in the future.

Amid a decline in infrastructure spending, cities and local transportation agencies still pull together funding to address current and future transportation needs — but they could be taking on more ambitious updates. 

Why it matters: Beyond repairing and improving roads and sidewalks, cities have an opportunity to build infrastructure that could open up alternative mobility options and increase accessibility for all. 

The big picture: General infrastructure updates could have ancillary benefits for people with mobility disabilities and, for example, people who commute by bike. These include:

Energy efficient and more effective street lights would increase night visibility, which could improve safety for cyclists and those using sidewalks and crosswalks. 

Designated ride-hailing pick-up and drop-off zones could keep cars out of bike lanes and crosswalks — and could incorporate ramps for wheelchair users and those with strollers and walkers. 

But, but, but: Basic improvements wouldn't be enough to meaningfully expand accessibility — and municipal governments in some cases already struggle to make basic infrastructure repairs.

What's needed: Communities will also need to make investments specifically designed to improve accessibility.

Crosswalks could incorporate more “curb cuts,” which are built in ramps, and more audio announcements of light changes for people who are blind or low-vision.

Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. are installing beacon technology in some transit hubs to help people navigate using audio cues transmitted via devices like smartphones.

The bottom line: With municipalities stepping up to plan for and invest in an autonomous, electric transportation future, there is an opportunity to implement infrastructure improvements that follow principles of inclusive, accessible design. 

Editor's note: This piece was edited to take out a bullet on LA's rate of sidewalk repair due to outdated statistics.

How road and sidewalk repairs can incorporate accessible design

Sorely needed upgrades offer a chance to be more ambitious.

Illustrated collage including elements of road infrastructure

Cities

Amid a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="decline" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-09-06/government-spending-hits-a-striking-new-low" data-vars-content-id="f20800cc-2032-4014-8c1b-175033733fe3" data-vars-headline="How road and sidewalk repairs can incorporate accessible design" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-09-06/government-spending-hits-a-striking-new-low" target="_blank">decline</a> in infrastructure spending, cities and local transportation agencies still <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pull together funding" data-vars-click-url="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/cities-that-went-big-on-infrastructure-investments-in-2017" data-vars-content-id="f20800cc-2032-4014-8c1b-175033733fe3" data-vars-headline="How road and sidewalk repairs can incorporate accessible design" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/cities-that-went-big-on-infrastructure-investments-in-2017" target="_blank">pull together funding</a> to address current and future transportation needs — but they could be taking on more ambitious updates. Why it matters: Beyond repairing and improving roads and sidewalks, cities have an opportunity to build infrastructure that could open up alternative mobility options and increase accessibility for all.

Toyota, Renault, and VW have announced concept AVs that could be wheelchair accessible, but American automakers have yet to share wheelchair accessible design concepts.

Why it matters: If American auto manufacturers cede leadership on accessibility, they could end up forfeiting leadership on AV design more broadly and minimizing the role their cars can play in ridesharing long-term. 

Background: AVs are initially expected to roll out in ridesharing fleets, which will likely opt for cars that serve the needs of as many potential passengers as possible. 

What's happening: The rise of ridesharing and the possibility of the auto market moving away from traditional car ownership and towards transportation services has put an impetus on automakers to design cars that prioritize passenger space.

Cars will need to be roomier and more comfortable to accommodate more passengers, including wheelchair users or parents with strollers.

On these fronts, the concept AVs from Toyota, Renault, and VW appear to be leading the field. American automakers haven't shown they are making this a priority.

Reality check: Ridesharing companies operating in the U.S. are beginning to serve people with disabilities in certain markets. They will need to partner with automakers who have factored accessibility into vehicle design.

The bottom line: Companies that successfully develop seating configurations that allow for more riders, and for riders to have full mobility independence, are likely to offer the most attractive models for ridesharing companies. 

Henry Claypool is a policy expert affiliated with UCSF and the AAPD and a former director of the U.S. Health and Human Services Office on Disability. The AAPD, as part of the We Will Ride Coalition, has held informational meetings with automakers including VW. 

U.S. automakers risk falling behind foreign firms on accessibility

Toyota, Renault and VW have announced concept AVs that could be wheelchair accessible.

The front of a Volkswagen e-Golf electric car in front of the Volkswagen AG factory in Germany

The Volkswagen AG factory in Dresden, Germany. Photo: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

Autonomous vehicles

Business

Toyota, Renault, and VW have <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announced concept AVs" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/av-companies-making-progress-on-accessibility-challenges-b788e1ef-aa59-495a-9995-48ccc5e55473.html" data-vars-content-id="f681006e-ff60-4fee-b577-5b1a055f3ac1" data-vars-headline="U.S. automakers risk falling behind foreign firms on accessibility" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/av-companies-making-progress-on-accessibility-challenges-b788e1ef-aa59-495a-9995-48ccc5e55473.html" target="_self">announced concept AVs</a> that could be wheelchair accessible, but American automakers have yet to share wheelchair accessible design concepts.Why it matters: If American auto manufacturers cede leadership on accessibility, they could end up forfeiting leadership on AV design more broadly and minimizing the role their cars can play in ridesharing long-term.

Henry Claypool

Stories

How road and sidewalk repairs can incorporate accessible design

An aging population could increase demand for autonomous vehicles

Ridesharing's accessibility struggles could have consequences for AVs

The market for accessible AVs is growing

U.S. automakers risk falling behind foreign firms on accessibility