Republicans fear "red scream" could depress GOP voter turnout
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Senate Republicans see Iowa moving their way and Ohio slipping, with pessimism growing over Alaska and Kansas.
Why it matters: Even when they squint, top Republicans struggle to see a majority beyond 51 seats, according to half a dozen senior operatives.
- ✈️ A combination of paid media and Air Force One visits has bolstered GOP confidence that they'll hold South Carolina and Mississippi.
- But across the map, the outlook looks bleak, with only a few bright spots.
Zoom out: Republicans are fighting a two-front war: unprecedented Democratic enthusiasm and undeniable Republican apathy.
- 🏈 President Trump's strategy is to whip up the MAGA faithful with rallies in the reddest parts of red states.
- 😱 "The Red Scream is my biggest concern, not the blue wave," said Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican consultant who has worked to help Trump get elected.
- ‼️ "Republicans and independents are going to be screaming for attention, and many of them, including those who voted for Trump, may show their frustration by not showing up."
Zoom in: Texas is starting to look like a late-season football showdown against an SEC rival: The GOP is still in the game, but defeat seems like a real possibility.
- 🌾 In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R) has stopped the bleeding, but it's unclear whether there's enough time left to save his seat.
- 🛥️ Republicans are quietly bullish on Michigan, but they recognize that the demographics have to break heavily in their favor, especially among Black voters.
By the numbers: The math hasn't changed, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) sees multiple paths to 51 seats.
- No one disputes that North Carolina is going to have a Democratic senator. It seems like another lifetime ago that Republicans were talking seriously about flipping Georgia.
- If just two of the next tier of Ohio, Kansas and Alaska flip, the Senate would be split 50-50 before factoring in other competitive races, like Michigan, Iowa and Maine.
🦞 In Maine, Republicans and Democrats are consumed by competing fears.
- Republicans are terrified that a national wave will be big enough to wash away Sen. Susan Collins.
- Democrats, burned by her unforeseen survival six years ago, refuse to trust even the polls showing them ahead.
🎣 Between the lines: Maine and Alaska may be separated by more than 3,000 miles, but they pose a similar challenge for pollsters: small, overfished electorates where voters are increasingly unwilling to pick up the phone and bite on yet another survey.
- Both could also see delays in their final results — potentially keeping the majority in limbo for days or weeks, as we told you last night.
