September spending spree
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Republicans are outspending Democrats in almost every battleground Senate race this month as Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) looks to the GOP's cash advantage to help hold his majority.
Why it matters: The post-Labor Day rush is here, with $390 million (and climbing) of Senate campaign ads headed for voters' TVs, tablets and phone screens.
- But money can't buy you love — or guarantee you win an election.
Driving the news: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is finally getting the Texas-sized spending boost he needs.
- Thune-linked Texas PAC is now the biggest spender in the race this month, with more than $41 million worth of ads, per AdImpact data.
- There's more to come.
By the numbers: TV affiliates aren't at saturation levels, but they're getting close. The September ad spend could keep growing.
- In three crucial states — Ohio, Texas and Michigan — Republicans have reserved at least $10 million more in September advertising than Democrats.
- Only in Georgia, a state where incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is now favored to win reelection, are Democrats outspending Republicans.
- Both parties are also treating Iowa and Alaska, two traditionally red states, as competitive, with Republicans holding the spending edge in both.
Zoom in: A new Trump-linked super PAC is jumping into the midterms — and spending big — giving Republicans another infusion of cash.
- No Going Back PAC, backed by Trump's MAGA Inc., has reserved roughly $41 million this month in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Alaska and Georgia, as well as in various House races, according to AdImpact.
- Separately, MAGA Inc. announced plans to spend $10 million in Texas.
Elon Musk has opened his pocketbook, too. His super PAC has disclosed roughly $800,000 in spending to boost Republicans in the midterms.
- And the super PACs aligned with Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are spending down their nine-figure war chests.
Zoom out: For the second cycle in a row, Ohio is on track to be the most expensive Senate race in the country, as Sen. Jon Husted (R) and his allies try to thwart former Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-Ohio) comeback bid.
- But that could change. North Carolina and Texas also have expensive media markets, and Trump's political operation is only beginning to tap its massive war chest.
Flashback: At the start of the cycle, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) warned Republicans from safe states not to expect the party to bail them out financially.
- But he also predicted that North Carolina would cost $700 million for both parties and that Maine could climb to $600 million.
- September spending shows Republicans are spending heavily on defense in other red states.
Between the lines: Super PACs are by far the biggest spenders this month. But their dollars don't stretch nearly as far as money spent directly by candidates.
- Super PACs can pay twice — or more — what candidates pay for the same broadcast airtime.
- Most Democratic candidates have a clear advantage in so-called hard dollars, meaning they can spend less while potentially putting more ads on the air.
Both parties are also using coordinated campaigns to stretch their money further, combining national party funds with candidate spending to qualify for lower advertising rates.
- A Supreme Court ruling last week made it easier for the party committees to get the same low rate that candidates get.
- The result is that the NRSC is able to whittle away some of the edge most Democratic candidates have in hard dollars
The bottom line: Republicans know they can lose their majority. But if they do, it won't be for lack of money.
