Trump's killer quote exposes his bind on Iran and inflation
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
President Trump's remark this week that "I don't think about Americans' financial situation" as he weighs his next moves in Iran may have inadvertently captured the fundamental bind he's in: how to pressure Iran without spooking markets and sending oil prices soaring.
Why it matters: Trump currently has no clear way to square his desire to end the war on his terms with the need to rein in inflation and keep the stock market humming in an election year.
Between the lines: What Trump appeared to mean in Tuesday's remark is that domestic economic concerns won't deter him from whatever steps he feels are necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
- That nuance is certain to be lost in the campaign ads Democrats cut highlighting the quote.
- "The president could have chosen different words, but this is what he thinks," a Trump adviser told Axios.
- The problem, a second Trump adviser acknowledged, is that "Iran has more time, and they're counting on our political calendar to benefit them."
Friction point: Iranian officials have made clear they believe time is on their side, and that Trump is sensitive to rising oil prices and market volatility.
- Recent economic data showing a gas-driven inflation spike — and poll numbers suggesting voters blame the president and his fellow Republicans — don't help Trump's case that he can ride this out as long as it takes.
- Republican pollsters and consultants acknowledge that gas price increases driven by the war in Iran will make it harder to sell their midterm message on issues like tax cuts.
- But the second adviser insisted Trump is "serious about a non-nuclear Iran," political considerations be damned.
The big picture: Trump has made clear ever since a ceasefire was reached six weeks ago that he was in the market for a deal and reluctant to resume the war.
- His negotiators thought they were getting close to a preliminary agreement with Tehran last week, but Iran's counterproposal disregarded Trump's key nuclear demands.
- Trump called the Iranian position unacceptable, and threatened a heavy price for Tehran's inflexibility.
- Trump's team is now discussing options for military escalation to break the deadlock, while recognizing the risk of exacerbating the economic turmoil.
Behind the scenes: U.S. officials don't expect Trump to take any dramatic steps during his trip to China, but think he could make his next move immediately afterward.
- U.S. officials say one option is to resume "Project Freedom," with the Navy attempting to break the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Another is to launch a new bombing campaign focusing on Iranian infrastructure, as Trump has repeatedly threatened.
- Israeli officials say they'll be on high alert this weekend in case Trump decides to resume the war. Any such operation would take place in coordination with the Israeli military, the officials say.
State of play: Some U.S. officials believe the American blockade is squeezing Iran and could force the country to buckle even without further kinetic action.
- Trump and his team have portrayed Iran as on the verge of economic cataclysm, though at least some U.S. intelligence analyses suggest the economy and oil infrastructure could hold up for several months.
- And while individual Iranians will certainly feel the strain, Iran's authoritarian system is less responsive to public discontent.
- The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
What to watch: Even if Trump declared the war over tomorrow, Iran could still throttle shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- If he launches new attacks, there could be a swift rise in oil prices and drop in the stock market.
- But with Iran's latest posture dampening hopes of a deal, expectations of renewed warfare are on the rise.
The bottom line: Trump says he won't think about Americans' finances "even a little bit" if he makes such a decision, insisting that stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is his singular focus. In the process, he handed Democrats a ready-made attack ad.
Marc Caputo contributed reporting.
