Trump's incredible shrinking tent

• What Republicans celebrated as a once-in-a-generation coalition may turn out to be exactly that, never to be reassembled.

Zoom in: Over the last two weeks, Trump has tested the loyalty of MAGA's Christian base with a series of extraordinary provocations.

• It began on Easter, when Trump threatened to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges in a profanity-laced Truth Social post, and signed off with "Praise be to Allah."
• Two days later, he warned Iran that "a whole civilization will die tonight" — appalling some of his closest former allies, including Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones and Candace Owens.
• On Sunday night, Trump attacked Pope Leo XIV — the first American-born pope — as "WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy," furious that Leo had condemned his threats against the people of Iran.

Within the hour, Trump posted an AI-generated image of himself as a Christ-like figure — healing a bedridden man, flanked by bald eagles and the American flag.

• The image drew rare condemnation from MAGA loyalists, including allegations of blasphemy and even demonic possession.
• Trump deleted the post Monday morning, telling reporters: "It's supposed to be me as a doctor, making people better. And I do make people better."

Between the lines: Catholics, who make up roughly a fifth of the U.S. population, are America's most powerful swing religious bloc. Trump's attacks on the pope — who is far more popular than he is — could prove self-destructive in the midterms.

Zoom out: Trump's war on his own coalition extends far beyond the pews.

• MAGA media: Trump has lashed out at the most powerful voices in the "America First" ecosystem, disavowing erstwhile allies for their criticism of his Iran war. The fallout is tearing through the broader MAGA media world, forcing influencers who've spent years in lockstep to publicly pick sides.
• Podcast populists: Trump's 2024 campaign attracted a generation of young, nontraditional Republican voters who'd never pulled a lever for the party before. The Iran war, the Epstein files and suspicious trading activity tied to Trump announcements have shattered their fleeting trust in politicians.
• Crypto enthusiasts: Trump ran as the "crypto president," and the industry poured millions into his campaign. A cascade of controversies — including crashing prices, meme coin "rug pulls," and new allegations of self-dealing by the Trump family's crypto venture — has left even true believers questioning whether they were ever anything more than marks.
• Farmers: Trump's policies are hitting his rural base from every direction — tariffs that squeezed margins, deportations that thinned the farm labor force, trade tensions with China that sent soybean prices tumbling, and now an Iran war that's sent fuel costs soaring.

• Nonwhite voters: Trump made historic inroads with Latino and Black men in 2024 on the strength of his economic message. Deep pessimism about the U.S. economy has rapidly unraveled those gains, with Trump's approval among Latinos cratering to 22% in February, according to a CNN poll.

What to watch: The broad erosion in support is now threatening MAGA's foundation.

• A new CBS News/YouGov poll found Trump's approval among white voters without college degrees — the backbone of his movement — has swung from +36 early in his term to underwater at -4, a 40-point collapse.

What they're saying: "What matters most to the American people is having a commander-in-chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump did with the successful Operation Epic Fury," White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement.

• A White House official told Axios: "Despite some online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the president's decision — and many legacy media outlets eagerly highlighting their comments to try and sow division — the MAGA base is not wavering one bit. These commentators claiming this will somehow fracture the president's support is not backed by or reflected in the polling data."

The bottom line: "The coalition that got Trump elected is completely fractured and in smithereens," said conservative host Megyn Kelly, a target of Trump's recent ire over Iran.

• "The question is now not who has Trump lost. The question is who remains."