Trump's pope spat risks feud with crucial Catholic swing voters
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Pope Leo XIV leads a prayer vigil for peace at St. Peter's Basilica on April 11 following a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Photo: Simone Risoluti/Vatican Media via Getty Images
President Trump followed a Holy Week of profanity-laced threats with attacks on Pope Leo XIV and posting an AI self-portrait as a Jesus-like figure — risking alienating Catholic swing voters who backed him in 2024.
Why it matters: Catholics are America's largest swing religious vote, and Trump's support among them was already sliding before his latest attacks on their pontiff.
- Trump won Catholics by 10–20 points in 2024, depending on the exit poll, a dramatic swing from 2020.
- Now, he has used campaign-style rhetoric to attack their pope as a political enemy.
- "I cannot think of any parallels, at least coming from Western Christian majority countries, of such pointed and public attacks on the Pope," Andrew Chesnut, Virginia Commonwealth University's Catholic studies chair, tells Axios.
Catch up quick: Trump's clash with Leo has been building, but it exploded over the Holy Week.
- Trump posted a profanity-laced Easter morning threat to Iran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had urged Americans to pray for "overwhelming violence" against enemies, even as Pope Leo used his Easter Mass to call on "those who have weapons" to "lay them down."
- Trump then threatened that "a whole civilization will die tonight" in Iran. Leo called the threat "truly unacceptable."
Driving the news: On Sunday, Trump called Leo "WEAK on Crime" and "terrible for Foreign Policy."
- Trump also targeted the conclave itself, claiming Leo was chosen only because the church "thought that would be the best way to deal with" him.
- Minutes later, Trump posted an AI image depicting himself in biblical robes healing the sick. He deleted it Monday and claimed it depicted him "as a doctor."
- Outside the Oval Office Monday, Trump doubled down on his criticisms of Leo: "There's nothing to apologize for. He's wrong."
Between the lines: Chesnut tells Axios he's seeing attrition among white Catholics, not just Latinos, as many view Trump's broadside as "an attack on their religion."
- The conclave comment may be particularly risky, said Chesnut in a Monday phone interview. Many Catholics believe the Holy Spirit guides cardinals in selecting a pope. Trump's claim Leo was chosen for political reasons challenges a process devout Catholics consider sacred.
- That Leo is the first American pontiff deepens the sense of personal stake. "He's one of us. He's an American Catholic from Chi-Town," Chesnut said.
- He said no prominent Catholic voices have publicly defended Trump's attacks on the pope: "All the major cardinals and bishops who made pronouncements are backing the pope and criticizing Trump."
By the numbers: Catholics comprise about 1 in 5 voters nationally, per exit polls.
- In 2020, the Catholic vote split, either narrowly voting for Trump by 1 point or Biden by 5 points, according to AP and Washington Post exit polls.
- In 2024, Trump decisively won the group by somewhere between a 10- and 20-point margin, per the news exit polls.
- Pew data shows 7% of Biden's Catholic voters defected to Trump in 2024 while 4% went the other way.
The big picture: The Pew Research Center tracks religious voting patterns.
- While many religious groups may shift at their margins, most remain in their respective partisan camps cycle after cycle.
- Catholics are the exception — they swing, sometimes dramatically, and they're a big enough share of the electorate to decide close races.
- Pew surveys show Trump's approval among white Catholics fell from 59% in February 2025 to 52% in January 2026. Among Hispanic Catholics, it dropped from 31% to 23%.
