You can now see the odds of AI replacing your job
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Even gambling sites are turning AI anxiety into a product.
Why it matters: There's been endless debate about how AI will impact the labor market. Now, you can see the odds it'll impact your job — and even bet on it.
Driving the news: The Action Network, a sports media platform focused on odds, betting and analytics, created a tool that lets users enter their job title and see the odds it could be replaced by AI.
- The tool suggests that desk-based digital work is most vulnerable, especially documentation-heavy roles. Communication and research jobs are also among the most vulnerable.
- Physical and in-person jobs are safest, the analysis says.
Zoom in: The tool relies on data from Anthropic research measuring how AI is used across workplace tasks.
- Anthropic was not consulted for the tool, according to the Action Network. The site used Anthropic's data to create percentage-style probabilities to show the estimated likelihood that AI would replace a job.
- The goal was to help readers interpret and compare different occupations.
Friction point: Some research shows that AI speeds up work and makes people busier. Other analyses suggest it's leading to job displacement.
Zoom out: Anxiety about AI's impact on jobs is fueling gambling websites and prediction markets where people bet on tech layoffs and the AI bubble.
- "The playbook is extremely simple," says Nelson Chu, CEO of investment strategy company Percent. "Find whatever people are most afraid of, whether that's a war breaking out or AI replacing their livelihoods, and build a betting market around it."
Case in point: More than $1.5 million has been bet on a Kalshi market over whether the "Citrini scenario" — a doom-and-gloom scenario surrounding AI and the economy that stems from a long, speculative essay — will happen.
What we're watching: Tech leaders are at odds over how AI's rise will affect the workforce.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says AI will create new jobs, particularly in infrastructure and skilled trades. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned of a white-collar job bloodbath.
The bottom line: No one knows exactly how AI will shape the job market — but people are already betting on the outcome.
