Tech industry "gripped" by sci-fi vision of AI
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The tech sector is "gripped" by an ideological vision of AI that's rooted in science fiction — but it doesn't have to be that way, three prominent economists write in a new paper to be discussed Wednesday at the Brookings Institution.
Why it matters: The paper argues that despite a flood of recent essays portraying AI as an inevitable job-crushing force, the technology can be pro-worker.
How it works: Why is job replacement the leading vision for AI? Two reasons:
Looks cheaper. Businesses like the idea of replacing people and reducing costs.
Seems cool. The authors explain that the AI community has been consumed by a specific ideology:
- "Even though it is a technical and highly quantitative field, computer science — and the AI community in general — is nonetheless gripped by an ideological vision that places AGI, meaning machines that exceed all human capabilities, as its highest possible pursuit."
Where it stands: Researchers from the very beginning went with the idea that AI would be just like the human brain, MIT economist and coauthor Daron Acemoglu tells Axios.
- There were alternate visions that saw AI as complementary to humans.
- "But the AI community never got on board with them," he says. Instead, a "replacing humans agenda" took hold, and it happens to get a lot of support from science fiction.
- Economics writer Derek Thompson agrees, posting Tuesday on X: "The conversation about AI is a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives."
Between the lines: Science fiction is fiction.
Zoom out: The paper was coauthored by MIT economists David Autor, known for his work around "The China Shock," and Simon Johnson, who shares a Nobel prize with Acemoglu for their work on political systems and economic growth.
AI can be pro-worker in a couple of ways, they say.
- Disruptive technology creates entirely new occupations. For example: Six out of 10 workers in 2018 were employed at jobs that did not exist in 1940, Autor found in research from 2024.
- Tech can also enhance expertise and productivity — think of the spreadsheet's impact on accounting, finance and consulting.
Zoom in: The authors have an offbeat example: hearing aids. In 2024, software developers in China noticed that hearing-impaired gig delivery workers were at a real disadvantage to their peers.
- They invented a voice chatbot for the delivery app — and voilà! — these workers performed at the same level as their peers.
- "This instance of pro-worker AI is so straightforward that one may wonder if it even fits our definition. It does so, because this technology makes human skills and expertise more valuable," they write.
The big picture: Technology is under human control — despite apocalyptic visions to the contrary.
- The authors have several suggestions for redirecting the conversation. These include more federal government investment in AI through grant-making, and changes to the tax code to incentivize hiring more workers — right now you get better tax breaks for investments in machines.
Context: The federal government has long spent money on research into promising new technologies, as well on the infrastructure to support that tech. All of that has led to public benefits. (Take the federal interstate system — what if automakers built the highways?)
- Now the bulk of investments in AI are coming from the private sector.
- That's another reason for the industry's anti-worker bent.
The bottom line: The future of AI is up for grabs, and some economists are disputing the notion that it will lead to our doom.
