Earthquake in the Gulf: Iran war expands to dozen countries in 72 hours
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Smoke rises from an explosion following Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon on March 2. Photo: Jalaa Marey / AFP via Getty Images
Just 72 hours after the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran, the war has already consumed nearly the entire Middle East, reached the gates of Europe and raised new fears of attacks on American soil.
Why it matters: The sheer geographic scope of the war is staggering — directly involving at least 11 countries, disrupting the global flow of oil and gas, and rattling markets worldwide.
- President Trump said Monday that Operation Epic Fury is designed to last four to five weeks. In that window, the conflict has significant room to expand further.
The big picture: The Middle East had barely caught its breath.
- After two years of war across Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire had only brought relative quiet to the region last October.
- Now comes another earthquake — and by early measures, a far larger one.
Driving the news: Iran had warned prior to the war that any attack on its soil would trigger retaliation not just against Israel, but against U.S. bases across the Gulf and in Iraq.
- In the opening hours of the war, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
- Iran also struck the Kurdish region of Iraq, which it views as closely aligned with the U.S. and Israel. Pro-Iranian militias attacked U.S. bases in Iraq, and their supporters attempted to storm the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad.
On the second day, Iran expanded its strikes to Saudi Arabia and Oman — the country that had been instrumental in brokering nuclear negotiations between Tehran and the Trump administration.
- On Monday, debris from two Iranian drones struck an Aramco oil refinery in Saudi Arabia — the first such attack since 2019.
- Qatar — another key mediator between Tehran and Washington — said it downed two Iranian fighter jets and condemned the "reckless and irresponsible" targeting of its territory.
The other side: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other officials have insisted that Iran is not at war with the region — only targeting Israel and U.S. military bases.
- But Iranian drones and missiles have struck numerous civilian targets across the Gulf, including tourist areas of Dubai.
- That gap between Iran's stated position and its actions is pushing several regional countries to consider joining the war and retaliating directly against Iran, Arab sources tell Axios.
Between the lines: Iran has also moved to strangle commercial shipping in the Gulf, attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz by vowing to set fire to any ship that passes through.
- The U.S. has sunk several Iranian naval vessels and insists oil supplies remain stable, despite 20% of global crude shipments passing through Hormuz.
- The attacks have significantly curtailed exports, and Qatar's suspension of liquefied natural gas production sent energy markets sharply higher Monday.
Zoom in: On Sunday night, Hezbollah entered the war — launching missiles and drones at Israel and opening a new front on the Lebanon border.
- Israel responded with massive airstrikes across Lebanon, including in Beirut, killing several senior Hezbollah commanders.
- Hezbollah's decision to join the fighting had been one of the key unknowns for U.S. and Israeli intelligence. Though badly degraded by years of Israeli strikes, the group remains Iran's most powerful proxy.
So far, its attacks have been limited and largely intercepted by Israeli air defenses — leaving Israeli officials questioning why the group chose to enter the war without full force.
- "Everyone in Hezbollah is a target now," one Israeli defense official warned.
- In a remarkable development, the Lebanese cabinet voted Monday to ban all Hezbollah military activity on Lebanon's soil. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the group to immediately surrender its weapons.
The intrigue: Over the last 24 hours, drones struck the British Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri in Cyprus — dragging Europe into the conflict for the first time.
- Cypriot press reported that all indications suggest the drones were launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah, linking the attack directly to the group's entry into the war.
- Cyprus — which currently holds the EU's rotating presidency — postponed a planned ministerial summit in the wake of the attack.
- Greece announced it is sending two frigates and two fighter jets to help defend the island.
Zoom out: The three major European powers — the U.K., France and Germany — have signaled they could get actively involved in the conflict.
- In a joint statement, their leaders said they would "take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran's capability to fire missiles and drones at their source."
- The first concrete step came from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced he would allow the U.S. to use British air bases in the region to launch strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage depots and launchers.
- A source with knowledge of the process said this could include British bases in the U.K., Cyprus or Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
What to watch: The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have not yet entered the war, but have signaled they are preparing to do so.
The bottom line: The war is already being felt back in the American homeland.
- The FBI and DHS placed counter-terrorism teams on high alert and a DHS bulletin warned of a "heightened threat environment" — flagging potential terror plots and cyberattacks by pro-Iranian hacktivists.
- The U.S. Capitol announced heightened security measures Monday, and in Austin, a mass shooting is being investigated as potential terrorism linked to the conflict.
