Republicans forced all-in on once-safe House seats
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Republicans have spent $3.3 million to defend a congressional seat in Tennessee that President Trump won by 22 percentage points, according to AdImpact.
Why it matters: The big GOP spend is the latest example of the party going all-in on special elections to avoid a loss, or an embarrassment.
- Democrats are also spending aggressively in GOP territory, combining grassroots money with super PAC cash to try and score an upset.
Driving the news: "The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they're watching the district," Trump said over House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) speaker phone during a rally on Monday.
- "It's a big vote and it's gonna show something," Trump said. "And it's gonna show that the Republican Party is stronger than it's ever been."
- Johnson was in the 7th District for a rally for Republican Matt Van Epps to replace Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), who left Congress earlier this year.
- A new Emerson College poll shows Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by only two percentage points.
Zoom out: Concern about upsets, plus razor-thin margins in Congress, has forced the Republican campaign apparatus to spend extravagantly on special elections in districts that Trump carried with massive margins in 2024.
- In Florida's 6th District, Republicans spent more than $4 million to elect Rep. Randy Fine in a district Trump won 65%-35%. Fine ended up winning by 14 points.
- In that state's 1st District, the GOP put in about $1 million to retain a seat Trump won 68%-31%. Rep. Jimmy Patronis won by 15 points.
The other side: Democrats have barely had to spend to defend their open seats in open elections.
- In Arizona's 7th District, Democrats spent around $18,000 in ads to retain a seat that former Vice President Harris won 60%-32% in 2024. Rep. Adelita Grijalva won 69%-29% in September.
- In Virginia's 11th District, where Harris won 65%-35% in 2024, outside groups didn't even contest a special election in September to replace Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died earlier this year. Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.) won the seat.
The bottom line: An expected GOP win in Tennessee's 7th District isn't coming cheap. A loss would be even more expensive.
