Trump's coming House headaches
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For the first time in modern history, the House majority will rest on thinner margins than the Senate's in the 119th Congress.
Why it matters: The House is going to be a bigger headache for President-elect Trump than the Senate.
- The chaos of the past few days is just the tasting menu for a banquet of what's to come in two weeks.
- "This is comparatively straightforward," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters about the government shutdown showdown. "Reconciliation is very tough. It's very complicated, and they can't manage this. This has been a disaster."
What to watch: The Senate plans to use reconciliation to work around the filibuster and pass political priorities with a simple majority.
- They can even afford to lose a couple of votes from the likes of Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) or Rand Paul (R-Ky.)
- But they could face a dilemma the House usually has to deal with — watching a bill get changed or die in the other chamber.
By the numbers: The 119th Congress will begin with six more Senate Republicans than Senate Democrats, while the House will start with four more Republicans than Democrats, assuming former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) does not get sworn in for a new term.
Incoming Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) called the statistic "wild."
- "Any time you have a narrow margin, it's a challenge, whether it's the Senate or the House," he said, adding leaders will "do our best to make sure we keep the team as united as possible."
It's the first time the House has had a smaller majority than the Senate since at least the 88th Congress, which was the first time there were 435 representatives and 100 senators.
- The House margin will get even smaller, fast. Reps. Elise Stefanick (R-N.Y.) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) are expected to join the Trump administration, leaving their seats empty, at least temporarily.
- Sens. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will also vacate their Senate seats for top Trump posts next month. Their seats will likely be quickly filled by governor appointments.
