Exclusive: SpaceX could be more valuable than OpenAI, Sequoia's Roelof Botha says
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Sequoia Capital's Roelof Botha. Photo: Axios Live.
Sequoia Capital's Roelof Botha said Elon Musk's SpaceX has a "bigger chance of being the most valuable company" than OpenAI during a sit-down interview at Axios' BFD event on Tuesday.
Why it matters: Botha's opinion can move markets and completely overthrows the prevailing view that OpenAI is the tech industry's most valuable player.
What they're saying: "SpaceX, by itself, is responsible for 80% of all mass moved into orbit last year. It dominates that particular industry," Botha told Axios' Dan Primack.
- "In the case of OpenAI, an incredible business, they have several competitors as large language models," he said, mentioning Google's Gemini by name.
- "So it seems as though there's real competition now for the consumer aspect of what OpenAI is and so it doesn't have runaway market dominance characteristics," he said.
Zoom in: As PayPal's former CFO, Botha said that he texts Musk often, and part of Musk's ironclad grip on his companies helps him effectively navigate industry changes.
- "Elon doesn't want to be encumbered with some of the bureaucracy that goes along with sort of more traditional boards. It doesn't mean that he's not open to advice…..he wants to build really successful businesses," Botha said.
Of note: Botha also acknowledged that he was wrong to assume that mergers and acquisitions would be easier during President Trump's second administration.
- "I think the vibe in general was that it was a more pro-business administration than we'd seen under the previous administration," he noted.
Context: Trump's 2024 win ignited hope that M&A dealmaking would experience significantly reduced regulations, potentially opening the floodgates to corporate consolidation.
- M&A deals did jump during Merger Monday last month, with U.S.-traded companies announcing more than $80 billion worth of deals at the start of the week.
Catch up quick: Botha stepped down as Sequoia's senior steward two weeks ago after leading the firm since 2017. He had been steering it solo since 2022.
- He'll remain a partner and on portfolio company boards.
- Alfred Lin and Pat Grady, leaders from Sequoia's early stage and growth stage investment businesses, will take the helm.
- The new leadership will have big shoes to fill. Sequoia has distributed $52 billion since Botha first became a steward in 2017, as Axios has previously reported.
