Scoop: Israel wants Trump to condition F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia on Israel normalization

Driving the news: Trump told the Saudi Crown prince in a phone call last month that, with the Gaza war ending, he expects Saudi Arabia to move toward normalization with Israel, Axios reported.

• On Friday, Trump told reporters on Air Force One while traveling from Washington to Florida that he is going to discuss with MBS the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.
• "I hope that Saudi Arabia will be going into the Abraham Accords fairly shortly," he said.
• Trump confirmed that he is considering a possible weapons deal with Saudi Arabia that includes F-35 fighter jets.

Behind the scenes: The Israeli officials said Israel doesn't oppose the U.S. selling F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia but stressed it needs to take place as part of full normalization of relations with Israel.

• "We told the Trump administration that the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia needs to be subject to Saudi normalization with Israel," one Israeli official said.
• The official added that the U.S. giving Saudi Arabia F-35s without getting any diplomatic deliverables in return would be "a mistake and counterproductive."
• "Unlike the supply of F-35s to Turkey that we strongly oppose, we are less concerned about such weapons system in Saudi Arabia if its part of a regional security cooperation as part of the Abraham Accords, like we have with the United Arab Emirates," a second Israeli official said.

The big picture: Israel is the only country in the region that currently has F-35 fighter jets.

• The supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia would change the military balance in the region and affect the Israeli military's qualitative military edge (QME).
• Maintaining Israel's QME in the region is part of longstanding understandings between Israel and several Republican and Democratic administrations over the last few decades.
• Congress officially codified the U.S. commitment to Israel's QME into law in 2008.
• As part of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel agreed to the U.S. supplying F-35 jets to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), subject to several security guarantees. The deal has never materialized due to the Biden administration's demand to restrict the use of the jets.

Between the lines: Israel would likely ask for similar security guarantees from the U.S. if an F-35 deal goes through with Saudi Arabia. An Israeli official said the main concern is that Saudi Arabia is much closer to Israel than the UAE.

• "It takes minutes for an F-35 to fly from Saudi Arabia to Israel," the official said.
• Israel will likely demand that any F-35s that will be supplied to Saudi Arabia won't be deployed to Saudi air force bases in the Western parts of the country.

State of play: U.S. officials have told the Saudis they're hoping for progress on that issue around the Trump-MBS meeting next week at the White House, though they acknowledge the gaps between the Saudis and Israelis remain wide, the U.S. officials said.

• The main gap has to do with the Saudi demand that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu commits to "a credible, irreversible and time bound path" for a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has so far refused to do that.
• Two Israeli officials told Axios they also hope Trump will press MBS to soften his demands and that the meeting would launch direct talks between the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel on a potential peace deal that could materialize in the coming months.
• "The Saudis need to change their attitude during this visit. It is important that the Trump-MBS meeting will lead to a clear road map towards normalization," an Israeli official said.

Go deeper: U.S. and Saudi Arabia working to finalize defense pact before MBS meets Trump