Scoop: Trump told MBS he expects Saudi-Israel deal with Gaza war over
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Trump with MBS in Riyadh in May. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
President Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in a phone call last month that, with the Gaza war ending, he expects Saudi Arabia to move toward normalization with Israel, two U.S. officials told Axios.
Why it matters: U.S. officials have told the Saudis they're hoping for progress on that issue around the Trump-MBS meeting next week at the White House, though they acknowledge the gaps between the Saudis and Israelis remain wide, the U.S. officials said.
Behind the scenes: The call between Trump and MBS, which was not previously made public, took place after the Gaza peace summit in Egypt last month.
- A U.S. official with direct knowledge of the call said Trump told MBS he'd managed to end the war in Gaza, and now wanted the crown prince to move toward normalization with Israel.
- MBS said he was willing to work on it with the Trump administration, the U.S. official said.
- The Saudi embassy in Washington didn't respond to requests for comment.
State of play: The war was one major obstacle to normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but far from the only one.
- However, U.S. officials contend that some of the other Saudi demands for moving toward normalization have now been met.
- The Saudis wanted a defense pact with Washington, and they are expected to get a security pledge from Trump during MBS' visit. While it's not a full-fledged defense treaty, it could serve as the platform for one.
- The Saudis also want an irreversible path to a Palestinian state as part of a normalization deal. The White House believes the final two clauses of Trump's Gaza peace plan put Palestinian statehood on the table.
Friction point: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a fierce opponent of the two-state solution, disagrees. Netanyahu has also taken hardline positions on the implementation of Trump's peace plan that U.S. officials have found unhelpful.
- Trump's advisers are urging Netanyahu to look at the bigger picture — that by proceeding with Trump's plan he could secure a peace deal with Saudi Arabia.
Between the lines: The Trump plan says that if the Palestinian Authority "faithfully" conducts reforms during the reconstruction of Gaza, "the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people."
- The Trump plan also says the U.S. will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a "political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence."
- Former U.S. officials and Arab diplomats doubt that language meets the Saudi bar for a "credible, irreversible and time-bound path" for Palestinian statehood.
- A former U.S. official who is close to Saudi leadership said MBS needs much stronger commitments directly from Israel, with tangible steps on the ground, in order to sell normalization to the Saudi public, which has become much more anti-Israeli during the Gaza war.
What they're saying: "Our message to the Saudis is: 'We did all the things you asked for. Now, there are things President Trump wants, like normalization with Israel. So how are you guys going to move now in this direction?'" a senior U.S. official said.
Zoom in: Netanyahu has given the Saudi normalization file to his close confidant Ron Dermer, who will continue as special envoy despite resigning his ministerial post this week.
- During a recent visit to Washington, Dermer told Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he would continue his work on potential agreements with Syria and Saudi Arabia, sources said.
What to watch: U.S. officials say the discussions are ongoing, though they don't know if any breakthrough around normalization will be possible during MBS' visit.
