Google, the sleeping AI giant, awakens
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
We've asked the top AI executives for their private take on the American rival they fear most. Without pause, they all coughed up the same name: Google.
Why it matters: The search giant has been somewhat sleepy so far in the race for AI dominance.
- But Google's combination of scientific brain power, deep access to data, and lucrative income streams has rivals worried.
The big picture: The company with the most to lose (and fear) is OpenAI, the early leader in the race for consumer AI adoption and dominance.
- The two companies are increasingly in direct competition to conquer the next generation of search — one where AI curates smarter, faster, better answers without the hassle of digging and clicking.
- The prize is the generational business of being America's — and much of the world's — front door to just about everything.
Zoom out: When OpenAI upended the market in late 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, much of the Silicon Valley buzz was that Google had taken its eye off the ball.
Yes, but: Not anymore. Google has been quietly — and successfully — pursuing all the buzzy AI trends: touting AI agents, offering enterprise subscriptions and putting chatbots everywhere.
- Gemini went viral in August after the company released its Nano Banana image generation model and won praise for the realistic physics underlying its latest Veo video generation model.
- Now there are reports Apple may shift gears on its own AI ambitions and turn to Google to power the long-awaited next generation of Siri — a concession that, for all of Apple's technical might, Google just does this better (right now).
Between the lines: Perhaps as important as those recent gains, Google has a large and profitable business to support its aggressive training and development pace, while cash-burning rivals like OpenAI must constantly find fresh sources of capital.
- Google also has a leg up on OpenAI when it comes to distribution, thanks to its ubiquitous search engine, Chrome browser and Android operating system.
- Google can leverage those diverse income streams in multiple ways, while OpenAI works to build a business that generates enough revenue to justify funding $1.4 trillion in infrastructure over the next eight years.
The intrigue: Venture capitalist Josh Wolfe has argued that Google could use its search profits to offer Gemini for free, or near-free, thus causing many ChatGPT users to switch.
- How that would work as a business remains murky. Google has suggested it has plans to bring advertising to AI results, though no one yet knows what that really looks like.
The bottom line: The long-term race is still about which company reaches artificial general intelligence first. More immediately, what will matter is who turns today's AI into a sustainable business model.
