Why Trump's push to kill the filibuster could haunt Republicans

Context: Ending the filibuster would allow a simple majority of senators — or the vice president in the case of a tie — to pass bills, instead of the 60 votes most legislation currently requires.

• Republicans hold 53 seats and could end the government shutdown or advance other GOP priorities without any Democratic votes if they nuked the filibuster.

Driving the news: "Because of the fact that the Democrats have gone stone cold 'crazy,' the choice is clear — initiate the 'nuclear option,' get rid of the filibuster and make America great again!" Trump wrote in a Thursday Truth Social post.

The intrigue: Trump has been clamoring to end the filibuster since his first term but Republicans, including then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), held back.

• Trump also urged Republicans to end the filibuster earlier this week, leading Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) to ask Vice President JD Vance to talk Trump down, as Axios' Stef Kight scooped.

Here's how ending the filibuster would work:

How could the filibuster end?

The rule isn't mandated by law, so there's a couple of ways Senators could drop the filibuster.

• The more official way would be to change Senate Rule 22, which is the text that dictates the 60 vote number to move a bill forward. However, absent a two-thirds majority, that overhaul is unlikely.
• The easier way is to invoke the so-called "nuclear option," which would leverage the ability of a simple majority of senators to establish a new interpretation of senate rules without having to make a formal rule change.

Yes, but: Republicans can skirt the filibuster altogether by passing some budget-related bills through the reconciliation process.

• The Senate parliamentarian would then advise the GOP if their reconciliation bill aligns with the chamber's Byrd rule. If it doesn't, senators typically try again.
• However, Vance as Senate president doesn't need to listen to the parliamentarian's advice. Unless the Senate overrules him, Vance could ignore the parliamentarian and jam through bills using the reconciliation process.

How do Senate Republicans feel?

Almost every member of Senate leadership has dismissed ending the filibuster.

What they're saying: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has consistently maintained that the filibuster serves a "crucial purpose."

• In a floor speech earlier this year, Thune said the rule "forces discussion and compromise."
• "Critically, it ensures that Americans whose party is not in power also have a voice in Congress. Preserving the filibuster is crucial to preserving the Senate's checks-and-balances role in our system of government."

How likely is the Senate to end the filibuster?

Republicans will most likely hold the line on the filibuster.

• They can see a future where Democrats in power could push through wish-list items such as granting statehood to D.C. or extending voting rights legislation.

Case in point: Former President Biden backed ending the filibuster when Democrats held power to try to codify a right to an abortion after the fall of Roe v. Wade.

• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) refused to cave to leadership's demands back then, leaving the rule in place.

The bottom line: While the filibuster is probably here to stay, Trump has proven his ability to bring his party in line with his whims.

• As the shutdown's pain continues to spread, this might not be the end of the filibuster fight.

Go deeper: Biden backs Senate filibuster changes to codify Roe v. Wade