The BLS is prepping a delayed inflation report
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling some employees back from furlough to work on a key inflation report, a Trump administration official said Thursday night.
Why it matters: That data from the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is crucial to figuring out the annual Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA — and has been delayed in the government shutdown.
- The New York Times first reported that the BLS is un-pausing work on the (CPI), which measures the prices of goods and service across the nation.
Zoom in: The CPI was supposed to be released on Oct. 15. It's unlikely to make that deadline.
- The goal now is to get the numbers out in time so that the COLA announcement isn't delayed. It also looks likely that the Federal Reserve will have the numbers in time for its next meeting, one of the many data inputs the central bank considers in making interest rate decisions.
- The data behind the CPI had just finished being collected when the shutdown began on Oct. 1, says Erica Groshen, the former commissioner of the BLS, who is familiar withe the process.
What they're saying: The law requires the Social Security administration to calculate the cost of living adjustments using CPI data from the third-quarter, and publish the information about those increases before Nov. 1, the administration official said.
- So the issue needed to be addressed as the shutdown dragged on. The BLS will recall staff as-needed to complete the data release, they said.
- The shutdown hasn't and won't affect Social Security benefits overall because that funding is outside the annual appropriations process, but a delayed CPI would've damaged or prevented a COLA announcement, the official said.
What to watch: Other data reports produced by the department have been delayed — including the unemployment numbers for September, which were scheduled for release last week.
