Republicans eye Kansas and Nebraska to draw more House seats
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The White House has invited Nebraska state senators to Washington next week, giving Trump political aides the opportunity to discuss mid-cycle redistricting with them, according to people familiar with the matter.
Why it matters: State by state, district by district, President Trump wants to draw as many new likely GOP seats as possible ahead of the midterm election.
- Nebraska and Kansas might be next in the gerrymandering line.
- Three Republicans currently represent Nebraska in the House. But Democrats are favored to pick up one seat in 2026, with the retirement of Rep. Don Bacon from the Omaha-based district. Republicans want to thwart those plans.
- In neighboring Kansas, a Trump +16 state that has a Democratic governor, there are early conversations about how to gerrymander away the one Democratic House seat.
🦻What they're saying: "They are chatting about it back home," Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) told Axios.
- "I am staying out of that conversation. That's a decision for the state Legislature."
- "They probably have the veto-proof margin," he said, anticipating a likely veto from Gov. Laura Kelly of a new map.
Flashback: When Indiana lawmakers were at the White House last month, Vice President Vance stopped by the meeting. Later, he and Trump discussed with the state House Speaker how to pencil in more likely GOP seats.
- The Indiana Legislature is poised to approve a map that will include two more GOP-leaning House districts this week if it is called into special session, as is widely expected, this fall. Democrats currently hold two of the state's nine House seats.
The big picture: Control of the House next year could be determined by redistricting efforts this year.
- The White House is aggressively looking to buy some off-year insurance to protect its five-seat majority.
- The first shots were fired in Texas, with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signing into law a map that will create as many as five new likely Republican seats.
- In response to the Texas move, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is taking steps to amend the state's Constitution to redraw the maps next year, which could net his party another five seats.
Driving the news: Missouri is up next, with its Legislature moving toward giving Republicans one more likely seat. Trump fully approves.
- In Ohio, Republicans are eyeing either two or three seats.
- Florida is expected to draw anywhere from three to five likely GOP seats next year.
😥 Between the lines: The rules in Nebraska's unicameral Legislature would require a supermajority to draw new congressional districts in the middle of the decade.
- Republican state lawmakers failed to push through an effort last year to award all of Nebraska's Electoral College votes to the popular vote winner instead of giving one to the winner of each congressional district.
- "I wouldn't imagine the votes would be that dissimilar to [approve a new map] to congressional boundaries," Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) told Axios. "We just simply didn't have 33 votes, which is required to overcome cloture."
The bottom line: Democrats have decried mid-cycle gerrymandering, but Govs. Wes Moore of Maryland and JB Pritzker of Illinois have indicated they are willing to fight fire with fire.
- "All options need to be on the table if this is the direction that the country is going to go," Moore said on "Face the Nation" last month.
