Which members of Congress are at risk from redistricting
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
More than a dozen House members — five Republicans and eight Democrats — have come into focus as specific targets of mid-decade redistricting efforts in four states.
Why it matters: The redistricting arms race kicked into full gear this week, and the outcome across a growing number of states could help determine which party controls the House after next year's midterms.
- Florida became the latest state to formally contemplate a redraw and Vice President Vance went to Indiana to try to persuade Republicans there to join the mix.
By the numbers: Texas and California are considering specific proposals: Texas' would target five Democrats, while California's homes in on five Republicans.
- Republicans in two other states — Missouri and Ohio — are eyeing Democratic districts they could seek to turn redder with redistricting proposals.
- In Missouri, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's district is in the crosshairs, while Ohio Republicans are focused primarily on Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes' districts.
The big picture: President Trump helped kick off the unusual mid-decade redistricting frenzy when he urged Texas lawmakers to try to eke out five more Republican seats.
- A group of Texas Democratic lawmakers left the state last weekend to try to thwart the redistricting bid by denying Republicans a quorum.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) — who is holding a press conference Friday in Sacramento with Texas Democratic lawmakers — is threatening to undertake similar gerrymandering efforts to nullify Republicans' changes in Texas.
- State lawmakers could vote on a plan the week of Aug. 18 if the GOP effort in Texas succeeds.
Zoom in: In Texas, Democratic Reps. Al Green, Henry Cuellar, Julie Johnson, Vicente Gonzalez Jr. and Greg Casar represent the districts that are being targeted.
- In California, it's GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa.
- Texas' new map would put Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett in the same district as Casar. Lawmakers fear it would be a bloodbath if they both ran.
- Already, some Republicans are angling to run in the potential new Texas districts. Ryan Binkley, a pastor and long-shot 2024 GOP presidential candidate, announced his bid for Johnson's seat.
What we're watching: Kiley this week announced he would introduce legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting efforts nationwide.
- Several other Republicans from blue states who may be at risk of getting drawn into bluer seats, including New York Reps. Mike Lawler and Nicole Malliotakis, have publicly criticized both parties' mid-decade redistricting efforts.
- Democrats, by contrast, are largely getting behind the idea of having blue states try to draw out Republicans in retaliation — even those in red states who are at high risk of being drawn out themselves
Zoom out: Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez announced Thursday he was creating a select committee that would consider redrawing the state's district lines.
- Other states toying with the idea of launching their own mid-decade redistricting efforts include New York, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey on the Democratic side — and Indiana, South Carolina and Nebraska on the Republican side.
- Vance traveled to Indiana on Thursday to meet with Statehouse leaders about a potential redistricting effort. Gov. Mike Braun was noncommittal following the session.
Between the lines: Adding another layer of intrigue, Trump on Thursday demanded work begin on a new census, adding in a post on social media that, "People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED."
The bottom line: As the redistricting movement gains steam, look for more House members to become targets.
— Axios' Andrew Solender contributed reporting.
