The everything race
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Both parties are starting to act like the single most important vote in the 2026 midterms will take place in November of 2025.
Why it matters: Republicans and Democrats are both eyeing $100 million campaigns to convince Californians to approve (or block) a mid-cycle redistricting change.
💪 Control of the House is potentially at stake.
- Gov. Gavin Newsom, brimming with presidential energy, has gone all-in, vowing to use his state as a blue wall against President Trump's mid-cycle meddling.
- He has promised to reveal proposed maps that would add up to five Democratic seats — and make just as many battleground districts safe territory for Dems.
- "We anticipate these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas," Newsom said, referencing the special session where Texas Republicans plan to add five House Republican seats.
Zoom in: Democrats have been privately discussing their own $100 million dollar campaign for the ballot initiative, which will require voters to amend the state's constitution, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is trying to raise $100 million to oppose the change, Politico reported today.
- McCarthy will get some muscle from former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed nonpartisan redistricting.
- Arnold posted a pic today where he's wearing a "F*** the politicians. Terminate gerrymander" t-shirt while working out.
Between the lines: Democrats privately like their donor pitch better.
- If Republicans win the ballot initiative, they will save five incumbents — or at least give them a fighting chance in 2026 and beyond.
- But if Democrats prevail, they can flip those five GOP seats and use Newsom's redistricting wand to protect up to another five seats, currently in Democratic control.
- That means the party won't have to spend millions to defend those five seats for the next three cycles.
The bottom line: California is typically a fount of big dollar donations. This year it will become a sink.
— Hans Nichols and Justin Green
