Israel weighs West Bank annexations in response to Palestine recognition push

• Israel's next move will depend on the stance of President Trump, who blocked Israeli annexations twice in his first term. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told Axios the administration doesn't yet have a position.
• "I don't know how extensive [the planned annexation] is. I'm not sure there is common view inside the Israeli government about where would it be and how much," he said.
• Some Israeli officials claim the Trump administration won't oppose annexation because they're so angry at the countries planning to recognize Palestine.

Driving the news: Countries including Australia, Canada, France and the U.K. announced they will recognize the State of Palestine during the UN General Assembly in late September, joining the nearly 150 countries that already do.

• Israel and the U.S. oppose are trying to deter those countries by taking punitive measures against the Palestinian Authority and threatening even harsher steps if recognition takes place.
• The State Department announced on Friday that it won't issue visas to senior Palestinian officials who wish to attend the UN General Assembly in September, and will revoke visas that were previously granted. A State Department official confirmed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be barred from visiting New York.

Behind the scenes: Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar have told several European counterparts that Israel could annex parts of the West Bank if they go forward with recognizing Palestine, two Israeli and European officials said.

• One European official said Dermer even told French President Emmanuel Macron's Middle East adviser, Anne-Claire Legendre, that Israel would annex all of "Area C," which constitute 60% of the West Bank.
• Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting to discuss possible steps Israel could take in retaliation for the recognitions, Israeli officials say.
• The Israeli security cabinet is expected to discuss this issue on Sunday, with several of Netanyahu's ultranationalist coalition partners pushing for annexation. The settler lobby in the Knesset and in the Israeli media is also pushing for this move.
• "What the Europeans are planning to do started causing more and more people in Israel to say that maybe they should start talking of annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria," Huckabee told Axios, using the term by which the Israeli government refers to the West Bank.

Breaking it down: Legal experts say declaring Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank would violate the UN Charter and the Geneva Convention. The International Criminal Court is already investigating Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank as a potential war crime.

• European officials warn such a move would likely lead to sanctions against Israel by the EU, its member states and other western countries.

• Arab officials say Israeli annexation of the West Bank would likely lead Arab countries to suspend or downgrade their peace agreements with Israel and would put potential Israeli-Saudi normalization into an even deeper freeze.

Between the lines: A senior Israeli official said there are several options being considered, with the one Dermer presented to the French being the maximalist approach.

• Another option is the annexation of Israeli settlements and access routes to them, which constitute roughly 10% of the West Bank.
• A third option is to annex the settlements, the access routes and the Jordan Valley, roughly 30% of the West Bank altogether.

Flashback: During Trump's first term in office he blocked Netanyahu twice from annexing parts of the West Bank.

• The first time was in January 2020 after Trump presented his Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. The Israeli prime minister wanted then to annex 30% of the West Bank.
• "I got angry and I stopped it because that was really going too far," Trump told me in an interview in April 2021.
• The second time Trump stopped Netanyahu was in late June 2020 when the Israeli prime minister wanted to annex a smaller portion of the West Bank but was unwilling to give the Palestinians anything in return.
• Instead of annexation, Trump and Emirati leader Mohamed bin Zayed proposed to Netanyahu a normalization agreement with the UAE. It ended up as the Abraham Accords.

What to watch: Like in 2020, the Trump administration's position will determine whether Netanyahu goes forward with such a move or not.

• Two U.S. officials said that while it is impossible to predict where Trump will land, it seems unlikely that the administration will endorse annexation.