Redistricting wars spark mad dash of unlikely 2026 candidates
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Ammar Campa-Najjar speaks to reporters outside the San Diego Federal Courthouse during Rep. Duncan Hunter's arraignment on Aug. 23, 2018. Photo: Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images
California Democrats and Texas Republicans who might otherwise have had no chance of getting elected to Congress are suddenly spotting opportunity in the states' mid-decade redistricting.
Why it matters: It's not every day as many as 10 safe, open seats suddenly become available. The redistricting arms race has the potential to transform both states' congressional delegations for years to come.
- It's not just Texas and California either; Republicans are now looking at redistricting in Ohio, Missouri, Florida and Indiana, while Democrats are doing the same in New York, Maryland, Illinois and Washington.
- Some candidates have already thrown their hats into the ring — before the districts they're running in are even finalized.
Driving the news: In the last few weeks, several Republicans have filed to run in Texas' 32nd district — a safely Democratic seat which, under the new lines, will have gone for President Trump by 18 percentage points.
- The candidates include Ryan Binkley, a businessman and pastor whose previous stint in politics was loaning himself $11 million to run a long-shot GOP presidential campaign in 2024.
- In the state's 9th district — another blue seat set to become solidly red — Republican Theodis Daniel, whose 13-year-old son got a call out at Trump's joint session speech in March, launched a candidacy this week.
What we're hearing: Democrats in California are similarly eyeing their opportunities, Axios has learned.
- Ammar Campa-Najjar, a San Diego-area Democrat who lost close races to Republicans in 2018 and 2020, said in a statement to Axios he is "seriously considering" another run against Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), whose district is on Democrats' list of targets.
- "I appreciate everyone — from those of you who've voted for me before and ready to do it again, to national leaders who've offered support — for reaching out to encourage me to rematch Issa in the new district," Campa-Najjar said.
Zoom in: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), who represents a huge swath of rural Northeastern California, could face a challenge from state Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire, a California Democratic source told Axios.
- The web domain "mikemcguireforcongress.com" was recently registered, but the webpage is currently blank. McGuire did not respond to a request for comment.
Zoom out: With Texas Republicans and California Democrats both hitting the gas on their redistricting plans, both states have likely crossed a point of no return.
- That could have a chain reaction in states across the country — the net effect being a reduction in competitive congressional seats nationwide.
- Democrats, for their part, have long supported taking redistricting out of the hands of partisan legislators, but they feel they need to put their long-held position aside in order to protect their 2026 prospects.
