Trump's soft-power retreat scrambles U.S.-China race

• Some of it is strategic: an "America First" rejection of the institutions and norms Trump officials view as bloated, failed or captured by a liberal foreign policy establishment.
• But some of it, critics warn, is shortsighted: focused more on scoring domestic political points than sustaining the long-term foundations of American exceptionalism.

Driving the news: Voice of America — the U.S.-funded broadcaster long trusted to reach audiences inside authoritarian regimes — has gone dark in key regions after the Trump administration gutted its parent agency.

• Chinese state media is moving aggressively to fill the vacuum, expanding broadcasts in Nigeria, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries where VOA once saturated the airwaves, The Wall Street Journal reports.
• In a scathing report this week titled "The Price of Retreat," Senate Democrats accused Trump of damaging America's diplomatic toolkit and failing to offer "a viable alternative" to counter Chinese propaganda.

The big picture: Across domains where the U.S. once projected influence without military force, the Trump administration is unilaterally disarming.

• Alliances: Trump's tariff threats and bullying have undermined trust among allies critical to countering China's influence, complicating efforts to present a unified front in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Trump officials say the president has been consistent — and successful — in his demand for allies to do more to pay for their own defense.
• Global institutions: Trump has pulled the U.S. out of multilateral bodies he deems hostile or ineffective, such as the World Health Organization and UN Human Rights Council.
• Science: Trump's funding cuts to research and crackdown on elite universities have triggered fears of a U.S. "brain drain." China is making massive, long-term investments and recruiting top talent in AI, biotech and space — and already leads the U.S. in 57 of 64 advanced technologies tracked by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
• Clean energy: The passage of Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" is poised to kneecap America's renewable energy boom, widening China's already dominant lead in electric vehicles, batteries and clean tech supply chains.

Zoom in: In prioritizing trade and market access, Trump has adopted a less confrontational approach to the Chinese national security challenges that had — until recently — united Washington across partisan lines.

• AI chips: Trump reversed course this week and approved the sale of advanced chips to China after a personal request by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Some national security experts also warn that Trump's push to make the Persian Gulf a hub for AI development could give China backdoor access to cutting-edge U.S. technology.
• TikTok: Trump has openly defied a new law requiring Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest from the popular app or face a ban in the U.S. He's repeatedly granted extensions, brushing off the national security concerns that his own administration elevated during his first term.

What they're saying: "The Biden administration oversaw a bloated and waste-ridden operation that doled out billions of dollars annually without oversight and resulted in duplicative or even contradictory foreign policy," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.

• "President Trump and Secretary Rubio have made America respected again while ensuring that all actions align with the America First agenda that people voted for."

Between the lines: While Beijing has stepped into some voids left by America's retreat, it has shown little appetite for taking on large-scale humanitarian aid or governance reform work.

• China has had some success in pitching itself as the more globally responsible superpower, but Beijing's aid commitments and diplomatic initiatives often are less substantive than they might appear, says Elizabeth Economy, a former Commerce Department adviser on China now at the Hoover Institution.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a China hawk who aggressively advocated for foreign aid as a senator, has embraced the "America First" model of tying U.S. assistance to the nation's interests, rather than promoting values.

• "What Marco is doing is turning that upside down. He's saying, 'We have our interests. What are yours?' And if there's mutual benefit, let's do it," an outside adviser to the Trump administration told Axios.
• "Ambassadors are lining up for this and saying, 'Thank God — you're not telling us what to do.'"

The intrigue: Rubio's firing of thousands of State Department officials, including China policy staff, has raised concerns that the U.S. is sidelining its own expertise in ways that ultimately could benefit Beijing.

• "What you're hearing is the howling of the dying establishment that fed like pigs at the trough — a bunch of Oberlin grads pushing climate change and gender now don't have a job," the outside adviser argued.
• "And they think Russia and China are celebrating. But the fact is, this means we're being realists for the first time in a long time."

The flipside: Economy argues there's a dangerous short-termism to the administration's cuts in areas such as foreign aid or educational exchanges.

• "These things aren't always 1-to-1, you give this and get that. You're building up goodwill and support over the long term," she says, citing U.S. investments after World War II to rebuild countries that became democratic allies — and still are, 80 years later.
• "You don't win over friends with the kind of coercive diplomacy this administration prioritizes."

By the numbers: A new Pew Research poll of 25 countries found that China — not the U.S. — is now the world's leading economic power.

• China was seen as the top power by pluralities in 13 of those 25 countries, vs. just six countries in a similar poll in 2023.
• China's favorability in most countries polled by Pew has ticked upward, while America's global favorability has diminished significantly since Trump took office.
• Still, suspicion toward China persists — particularly in Indo-Pacific countries like Japan, India and South Korea, where the U.S. remains the more trusted partner.

Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting.