Hurricane Hunters at risk of not meeting mission, GAO finds

• On the personnel side, NOAA worsened its situation when it laid off workers in its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations as part of probationary employee cuts on Feb. 27.

Zoom in: The GAO found that the two agencies — which fly separate missions into hurricanes and perform flights aimed at improving forecasts of atmospheric rivers — are facing increasing demands for their services but don't coordinate well with each other.

• They also have been unable to fly a number of missions in recent years due to maintenance issues and personnel shortages.
• These challenges haven't been clearly communicated to Congress, the report found, making budget shortfalls more likely.

Both the Pentagon and NOAA accepted most of the GAO's conclusions and pledged to take actions to improve information sharing.

Yes, but: The NOAA layoffs of more than a dozen personnel included members of Hurricane Hunter flight crews and mechanics, threatening its ability to meet basic mission requirements for the 2025 hurricane season.

• The agency has since hired back three flight crew members, though some aircraft mechanics and other support staff weren't brought back, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The intrigue: The GAO report, released March 14, indicates the two agencies need to make changes to avoid shortfalls of their highly specialized aircraft.

• NOAA flies into and around hurricanes and atmospheric rivers to improve the accuracy of computer models used to help forecast the weather and to conduct research.
• The Air Force aircraft are more geared to making in-situ observations of storms and lack some of NOAA's specialized meteorological equipment.
• This includes a powerful tail-mounted Doppler radar that can peer inside a hurricane for a three-dimensional view.

NOAA recommended — but the GAO did not include — an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of Hurricane Hunter flights since forecast improvements can save large sums in avoided evacuation costs, among other effects.

Between the lines: The report comes at a time of transition for NOAA's aircraft, as it is in the process of procuring new, heavily modified C-130 turboprops to replace its aging WP-3D planes.

• It's also scheduled to receive a new, specially-equipped Gulfstream jet to fly above and around tropical cyclones to gather information on their steering currents.

• In general, significant hurricane track and intensity forecast gains have been made by combining new computer modeling and scientific understanding with real-time data gathered within and in the vicinity of the most powerful storms.

Project 2025, the blueprint for a Republican presidency that the Trump administration has followed in many respects, had recommended that NOAA's aircraft be transferred to another agency.

• However, the GAO instead calls for better coordination between senior leaders at NOAA and the Air Force.
• It recommends that both agencies systematically assess staffing needs and examine the reasons why they have missed needed flights in the past.
• The GAO cites two missed NOAA high-altitude flights into Hurricane Helene stemming from maintenance issues.

What they're saying: "Since 2014, a growing number of mission requirements have been missed," the report states. "However, NOAA and the Air Force have not systematically tracked the reasons for this."

The bottom line: As climate change makes extreme weather events more common and frequent, it isn't some AI algorithm that may allow for a forecasting edge — but turbulence-tolerant NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter crews.

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