Stripe is a mirror for VC hopes and fears
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Stripe this morning announced a new employee tender offer that values the payments giant at $91.5 billion.
Why it matters: This will be used as a proof point by both venture capital optimists and pessimists, as industry sentiment gets increasingly bifurcated.
Catch up quick: Stripe has become the poster child for not wanting to eat its IPO vegetables, as a 15-year-old "startup" that remains defiantly agnostic about going public.
- It was valued at $95 billion during a 2021 fundraise, but then slashed its valuation to $50 billion in 2023 via a tender. Last year's tender price was $65 billion.
Optimist case: Look at that valuation growth! Almost back to the paint-fume days of 2021. Stripe didn't plateau or miss its window. It's just being prudently patient.
- It's not that unicorns aren't going public or being sold because they're unsuccessful, or rendered archaic by AI.
- In most cases it's about working diligently to grow back into their valuations, with plenty of VC dry powder available to cushion the delay.
- Liquidity will still come, likely in the second half of 2025, when the SEC relaxes some rules and the Magnificent 7 begin to buy. Meanwhile, expect first-half IPOs from companies like CoreWeave and Circle.
Pessimist case: Venture capital is a power-law business, and the model doesn't work if top companies like Stripe keep kicking the IPO can down the road.
- It's simply unsustainable to keep investing without returns, and at some point LPs will make good on their threats to stop making new commitments.
- It's true that some early VCs get the option to sell into tenders or secondary deals, but too often take the FOMO route in the belief that holding will better enable new dealflow and fundraising.
- You really think the second half of 2025 will be awash in IPOs? That's the same thing we've been hearing for over two years — always forecasting six months out without a payoff.
The bottom line: Stripe is a mirror for venture capital hopes and fears.
