"High on Trump": Netanyahu sees Trump's Gaza gambits as Israel's big chance

In the short term, that's complicated Netanyahu's decision-making.

• As one senior Israeli official told Axios, it's difficult for Netanyahu to go softer than Trump on issues connected to Gaza.
• "The atmosphere among the ministers was that the Israeli government can't be less Trump than Trump on this," the official told Axios after a marathon security cabinet session on Tuesday.

But in the longer term, Netanyahu and his allies are beginning to believe Trump will help them get anything they want.

• "Bibi and the cabinet ministers are high on Trump," the senior Israeli official told Axios.
• More radical members of Netanyahu's government have been particularly emboldened by Trump's rhetoric, with some now convinced they no longer need to worry about withdrawing from Gaza or holding further negotiations with Hamas.
• "There was this feeling of intoxication in the room, like all of our Gaza problems are now solved because Trump said something," the official said.

Between the lines: Some Israeli officials are concerned that this euphoria could lead to the collapse of the first phase of the Gaza deal, possibly as soon as this weekend.

• That would leave nine hostages who were supposed to be released in the next three weeks, among them an American, in Hamas captivity.
• Around two dozen more hostages are due to be released in a second phase if the ceasefire survives that long.

Driving the news: Netanyahu told Trump last week at the Oval Office that he wants to hold serious talks on the second phase, which still needs to be negotiated.

• But after Trump saw the dire physical condition of the three hostages who were released on Saturday, he started losing patience about the phased structure of the deal.
• Then on Monday, Hamas said it was suspending the next release of hostages planned for Saturday due to alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire.
• Several hours later, Trump replied with his public ultimatum — outflanking the Israeli government from the right and disregarding the painstakingly negotiated ceasefire agreement.
• "Not in drips. Not three and two. All of them," Trump said, declaring that if all remaining 76 hostages were not released by noon on Saturday the ceasefire should end "and all hell will break loose."

Behind the scenes: During consultations with the heads of Israel's security services and again in a four-hour security cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Netanyahu boasted about the huge and unprecedented opportunity Israel now has in Gaza with Trump in the White House for another four years, two Israeli officials briefed on the meetings told me.

• "Bibi said Israel is going to have full U.S. backing to destroy Hamas, do whatever it wants in Gaza," a senior Israeli official said.

• The official said the attitude among many ministers was that Israel must fully adopt Trump's ultimatum as its new policy and abandon the current framework of the hostage deal.
• Two Israeli officials said the heads of the Israeli negotiating team, including Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, pleaded with the ministers not to escalated the situation and to give the Qatari and Egyptian mediators a chance to find a solution that will secure the release of the three hostages on Saturday.

State of play: Netanyahu settled on a vague middle course, not adopting Trump's ultimatum but announcing that Israel would resume the war on Saturday if its hostages weren't released — without specifying how many hostages.

• His office followed up with a flurry of quotes, attributed to "an Israeli official," that only created more confusion.
• At one point the "Israeli official" said the nine remaining hostages from phase one of the deal should all be released on Saturday.
• Later the official shifted toward Trump's position, saying "they all should come out on Saturday."

What to watch: Israeli security officials think Netanyahu left enough wiggle room to continue the ceasefire if the three hostages scheduled to be released are freed on Saturday.

• Israel has made clear to Egypt and Qatar that they must make sure Hamas sticks to the agreement.
• "The chance of a hostage release on Saturday has significantly diminished. This is very worrying. We hope that the mediators will understand the situation and save the deal," an Israeli security official said.