The winners in a fear-and-favor regime
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
A pattern is starting to emerge from the flood of actions coming from the Trump administration: The initial stance is often maximally aggressive, but it can be walked back if the targeted groups have direct access to the president.
Why it matters: Such a system favors the well-connected, including deep-pocketed individuals and corporations in the U.S., as well as large foreign companies who have the ear of their own head of state.
The big picture: The ascendancy of figures adjacent to Donald Trump, like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, can easily be seen in the stock market, where Tesla is up 44% and Palantir is up 115% since Election Day.
Between the lines: Access to someone who talks with Trump also works. Nippon Steel, for instance, was represented in talks with the president this week by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
- While the final outlines of any deal have yet to be reached, the Financial Times noted that it is "very similar" to the original acquisition of U.S. Steel, and might mean that Nippon doesn't need to pay a $565 million fee if the deal falls apart.
- On the other hand, when U.S. automakers were threatened by Trump tariffs on Mexico and Canada, they got lucky. Facing the prospect of having to stop production, they were rescued by deals Trump made with those countries' heads of state.
What we're reading: The New York Times on Saturday ran a big story about how OpenAI CEO Sam Altman "sneaked into the White House."
- In doing so, the Times wrote, Altman "managed to outflank" Musk and "make OpenAI the centerpiece of the new administration's nascent AI agenda."
Zoom in: Even the powerless can benefit when someone can speak for them in conversations with Trump.
- The 2 million Palestinians in Gaza whom Trump wanted to expel as part of his widely panned "Riviera of the Middle East" vision found advocates very quickly among Arab leaders, including U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
The other side: Most of the people targeted by Trump, especially in this country, have no one who will speak up for them in conversations with the president.
- That applies to undocumented immigrants, as well as a broad range of individuals seen as being part of the liberal elite, whether they work for research universities, watchdogs like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or USAID.
- These individuals have little recourse other than to try their luck in the courts.
Where it stands: The formulation that men of integrity, especially those in positions of power and responsibility, should act "without fear or favor" dates back to the 17th century. (To this day, it still appears in the oath that is sworn by every Vermont voter.)
- The Trump playbook, by contrast, is dominated by both fear and favors.
- "Bullies love to see people cower in fear," one Wall Street executive observed to Puck's Bill Cohan. "Why be a bully if you can't do that?"
The bottom line: Trump has shown that he's willing and able to do people favors. But they need to be in a position to negotiate with him in order for that to happen.
