Behind the Curtain: Trump's wild Middle East vision

1. It was a wild bluff — or bluster — to gain leverage in the Middle East. It's like threats of trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico — all-consumingly controversial, yet instantly ephemeral. This strikes most Republicans as the right interpretation.
2. The other: It fuses several Trump obsessions — his hope for a grand Middle East peace deal, his belief Gaza will be a hellhole for decades to come, and his genuine intrigue about developing the seaside land. U.S. officials tell us Trump's words were premeditated, and mirror ideas he floated to some staff and family members privately.

What he said: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip," Trump said, reading from notes in the East Room during the first formal news conference of his presidency, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. "We'll own it, and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."

• Asked later who he envisions living in a rebuilt Gaza, Trump replied: "I envision the world people living there — the world's people. I think you'll make that into an international, unbelievable place."
• Trump, channeling his inner developer, added: "We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal. And I don't want to be cute, I don't want to be a wise guy, but: the Riviera of the Middle East. ... This could be so magnificent. ... We'll make sure that it's done world-class — it'll be wonderful for the people."

The big picture: Like everything with Trump, his views and motivations are gray despite being expressed in stark black and white.

• "He's moving the goalposts of crazy," a longtime adviser told us. "This time around, he's not intimidated by headlines or pundits: He's gonna throw out there whatever he feels like throwing out there."
• Trump's message to the Middle East, in the words of this adviser: "I can make it a lot worse for you guys, or you can come up with a better plan."

Reality check: There are massive obstacles to Trump's vision.

• The human toll would be staggering: 2 million Palestinians call Gaza home and haven't consented to being forced out of their territory, despite the colossal destruction from 16 months of war.
• The leaders of Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected Trump's plan to resettle those Palestinians on their territory. Not to mention the broader regional consensus, including in Saudi Arabia, that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state — not an American one.

Human rights groups have already condemned the proposal as ethnic cleansing.

• Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, but he left the door open last evening to sending U.S. troops to Gaza "if necessary." Left unmentioned was what would be done about Hamas, which remains a force in Gaza and has recruited 10,000-15,000 fighters since the start of the war, according to U.S. intelligence.
• Trump's "America First" allies in the Republican Party are quietly raising their eyebrows, especially with his administration actively in the process of dismantling USAID for using taxpayer dollars overseas.

Between the lines: People want to put a frame around Trump's most dramatic moves or public statements.

• But everyone on the inside knows it's Trump being Trump — feeling wholly confident, unrestrained, liberated to say and propose whatever pops into his mind.

The Gaza idea is a collision of three private Trump views:

1. He believes a big peace deal, with the Saudis at the center, is doable.
2. He was genuinely moved by the scope of the destruction of Gaza, and the realization it could take decades to rebuild.
3. He and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, see this as authentic prime real estate — "waterfront property" that could draft off all the power and money flowing through the Middle East.

But Trump seemed to undermine his hopes for a broader Middle East deal. The Saudis were furious with both Trump's idea, and his claim they would accept a deal that does not include a Palestinian state, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump said the Gaza overture was Trump's own idea, and he had been thinking about it for at least two months, Barak reports.

• A U.S. official said Trump presented the plan because he came to the conclusion that no one else had any new ideas for Gaza.

The bottom line: Chaos isn't an accident. Trump and his aides know that the tsunami of ideas, executive orders and proclamations makes it hard for opponents to unite around a single message.

• Think about you or your friends: Are you more intrigued or worked up by all his controversial nominees ... or Greenland ... or trade wars ... or USAID ... or Elon Musk ... or Ukraine ... or South Africa ... or TikTok ... or a new sovereign wealth fund ... or Trump's own crypto? No human can process this much he-did-what news this fast.

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: Dispatch from Axios' Barak Ravid.