Behind the Curtain: The payback precedent

Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.

• That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
• They did it to us. So we'll do it, too — on steroids.

The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.

• We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.

Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:

1. Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation — payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
2. Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
3. Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure — but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
4. Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed — but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
5. Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could — but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office — with paper value that reached tens of billions — with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.

What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts — so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power? 

• Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years — Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.

Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.

• Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
• Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack — though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.

The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use — and expand — many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."