Scoop: State Department warned Trump team of looming UNRWA "catastrophe" in Gaza
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Palestinians carrying empty pots line up to receive meals distributed by charity organizations in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Jan. 2. Photo: Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty Images
State Department officials told the Trump administration transition team there could be a humanitarian "catastrophe" in Gaza when a new Israeli law barring contact with the UN refugee agency for Palestinians takes effect at the end of the month, three U.S. officials told Axios.
Why it matters: The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is the primary aid agency operating in Gaza. U.S. officials say there's no serious backup plan for providing humanitarian supplies and services to Palestinians.
- After more than a year of war, the UN and other aid organizations warn Gaza is close to uninhabitable. Tens of thousands of houses have been destroyed. Nearly two million Palestinians are displaced and dependent on aid for food, water and medical services.
- The Israeli law will take effect a few days after President-elect Trump's inauguration, when the new administration will be faced with mounting world crises.
- Biden administration officials told Axios they initiated the briefing about UNRWA because they wanted the new administration to be aware of the looming crisis.
Catch up quick: In late October, the Israeli parliament passed two bills that would significantly limit UNRWA's ability to continue operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
- The first bill bars UNRWA from operating in Israeli territory, and is most relevant to UNRWA's activity in East Jerusalem. But it also affects the aid agency's operations in the West Bank that are run from Jerusalem.
- The second bill bars any Israeli government official from having contact with UNRWA, and strips all UNRWA workers of their diplomatic privileges and immunity.
- Israel has long opposed UNRWA — and since the war began in Gaza, has claimed some of the agency's staff were involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. UNRWA fired nine staff members following a UN investigation, but has repeatedly denied allegations that the agency has widespread links to Hamas.
- During Trump's first term, his administration gradually cut all U.S. assistance to UNRWA. The Biden administration later resumed U.S. aid to the agency and supported its budget with hundreds of millions of dollars. But Congress passed a law in March that bans the U.S. from funding UNRWA until at least 2025.
What they're saying: UN officials said they're concerned that after the laws come into effect, UNRWA staff won't be able to move between Gaza and Israel, and the agency won't be able to carry out deconfliction arrangements with the IDF. It's also not clear if the IDF will treat the agency's facilities as part of the UN, which can't be targeted by Israeli forces under international law.
- That will put the ability of UNRWA to continue working in Gaza in jeopardy, UN officials said.
- A senior UNRWA emergency officer told The Guardian that social order in the Strip would likely collapse.
Behind the scenes: Last week, State Department officials briefed Joel Rayburn from the Trump transition team on the UNRWA situation, and raised "deep concern" about the new laws' implications for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, U.S. officials said.
- Rayburn, an experienced Middle East expert who is a former U.S. envoy to Syria, is expected to be named the incoming administration's Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs.
- "We wanted them to know what is going to happen 10 days into their presidency," a U.S. official told Axios. "We thought it was the responsible thing to do. It's a catastrophe waiting to happen."
Zoom in: U.S. officials told Axios that neither Israel nor the UN has made any serious plans for what happens next.
- UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres refused over the last two months to engage in a discussion with Israel about alternative UN agencies that could take on some of UNRWA's roles, U.S. and Israeli officials said. A spokesperson for Guterres declined to comment.
- The Israeli government conducted several consultations about the UNRWA issue. But hasn't made any decision about what to do in Gaza after the laws come into force, a senior Israeli official told Axios.
- "Both sides are playing chicken, waiting for some magical solution — and thinking that if they do nothing, it will solve itself out," a U.S. official said. "But it won't."
In a letter to the members of the UN General Assembly in December, Guterres wrote that the cessation of or restrictions on UNRWA activities in Gaza and the West Bank would have "devastating consequences" for Palestinian refugees.
- "There is currently no realistic alternative to UNRWA which could adequately provide the services and assistance required," he wrote.
- UNRWA Director of Communications Juliette Touma told Axios the agency isn't going to shut down its operations on Jan. 31 when the law takes effect.
- "We plan to stay in Gaza and work as long as we can until we can't. It will be a disaster if the bill is implemented," Touma said. "Who is going to do the work?"
