Toppling of Assad transforms Middle East after year of chaos

• The architect of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar, envisioned his "big project" leading to the destruction of Israel by the pro-Iranian "axis of resistance."
• By the same token, Russian President Vladimir Putin — a key Assad backer — saw his invasion of Ukraine as the crown jewel in more than a decade of efforts to reclaim Russia's superpower status.

Both turned out to be historic miscalculations — with no clearer evidence than the astonishing fall of an Assad family regime on Sunday that had ruled Syria for 53 years.

Zoom in: Both President Biden and President-elect Trump — and many spies, diplomats and defense officials personally involved in the tumultuous events of the last year — agree that Assad was doomed by the weakening of his allies, Russia and Iran.

• After Oct. 7, when much of the world was still reeling from the Hamas terrorist attack, Iran and its proxies "chose to launch a multi-front war against Israel," Biden said in a speech from the White House Sunday.
• "That was a historic mistake on Iran's part," the president declared.

The big picture: Oct. 7 represented the worst security failure in Israel's history. But in the year since, Iran's axis of resistance has suffered a series of catastrophic blows.

• Hezbollah: Iran's most armed and trained proxy lost its charismatic and powerful leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike. Hezbollah's military infrastructure has been significantly degraded, and the Lebanese group agreed to a ceasefire with Israel last month under extremely unfavorable terms.
• Hamas: Israel has bombarded the Gaza Strip for over a year, destroying Hamas military infrastructure and killing Sinwar and countless other top military officials.
• Iran: The Islamic Republic was attacked directly by Israel for the first time — and suddenly found itself vulnerable after losing much of its missile production capability and sophisticated air defense systems.

Between the lines: Russia, whose 2015 intervention saved Assad and helped inflict mass suffering on the Syrian people, has been bogged down by the war in Ukraine for nearly three years.

• "Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success," Trump wrote on Truth Social Saturday.

• Biden on Sunday made the same point and said that Ukraine, with U.S. support, had managed to impose massive damage on Russia's forces to the point it couldn't defend Assad.

Zoom out: The disintegration of Assad's military forces — and his own decision to flee the country — has delivered a devastating strategic blow to his allies.

• Iran and Hezbollah, which both intervened to prop up the Assad regime after the 2011 Syrian revolution, quickly evacuated hundreds of their people as rebels were sweeping across Syria at lightning speed last week.
• Both have now lost their main logistical hub for producing, transferring, and storing weapons, training their militias, and threatening Israel with another front.
• Without Assad, Russia could lose naval access to the Mediterranean — and ultimately its grip over the only country in the Middle East where it has dominance over the U.S.

What to watch: What comes next is deeply uncertain, and the direction of any future rebel-led government will be closely watched by the U.S., Russia, Israel, Iran and the many other countries impacted by 14 years of war.

• The dominance of Islamist groups in particular — including former affiliates of al-Qaeda — has left the international community on edge, not to mention some minority communities who felt safer under Assad.
• But for now, millions of Syrians are simply celebrating the chance to write their own future.