Trump is already giving Mike Johnson months of headaches
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House Speaker Mike Johnson and President-elect Trump at a House Republican conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 13, 2024. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images.
As House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) prepares to push President-elect Trump's agenda in Congress, Trump is helping ensure the GOP has one of the smallest House majorities in American history.
Why it matters: The three House seats Trump vacated with his Cabinet choices could take months to fill, winnowing an excruciatingly small GOP majority for much of the first 100 days.
- One House Republican conceded that the timeline their party faces for getting to full strength is "not ideal" for the incoming president's plans.
- "It means tighter margins," acknowledged another.
Driving the news: Florida's special elections to replace Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) won't be until April 1.
- Waltz is set to become Trump's national security advisor, while Gaetz was nominated for attorney general but has since withdrawn from consideration and said he will not return to Congress.
- The special election date is a far cry from Johnson's rosy prediction earlier this month that Gaetz's seat could be filled as early as Jan. 3.
Zoom in: The timeline for replacing Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Trump's nominee for U.N. ambassador, will likely be similar, a New York Republican told Axios, predicting a March or April special election date.
- The lawmaker noted that a special election is required in the state within 90 days.
- New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, will likely be in no rush to help Johnson quickly fill the GOP-leaning seat.
State of play: This all spells bad news for Johnson, who has at times struggled to manage the roughly five-seat majority he commanded this Congress.
- Now he is staring down something closer to a three-seat majority after House Democrats flipped sightly more seats than Republicans on Nov. 5.
- That will narrow even further to a one- or two-seat majority as long as Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz's seats remain unfilled.
Between the lines: The first 100 days of a new presidency is traditionally seen as a critical period for legislating.
- Trump failed to check off many items on his 100-day legislative checklist even in 2017, when Republicans had a 20-seat buffer in the House.
- That likely means rough conditions ahead for the incoming administration's grand plans on immigration, taxation, trade policy and energy and more.
- Trump will also have to navigate raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a government shutdown early in his presidency – both of which were crises for this Congress' narrow House GOP majority.
The bottom line: Asked if there is any silver lining for their party in these vacancies, a House Republican told Axios, "Gaetz is still out."
