Trump is about to become Gaza crisis "negotiator in chief"
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Pictures of hostages and victims are seen as Trump speaks during a remembrance event to mark the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel at Trump National Doral golf club in Miami, Florida, on Oct. 7, 2024. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images
Hostage families and deal-minded Israeli officials are now placing their hopes in President-elect Trump to succeed where President Biden has so far failed: Convincing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza in exchange for freeing the hostages held by Hamas.
The big picture: Less then two months before Trump's inauguration, a hostage-release and ceasefire deal looks unlikely to happen anytime soon.
- Instead Trump will very likely inherit the crisis and the responsibility for the seven Americans held by Hamas, four of whom are believed to be alive.
- Trump's incoming White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios he will restore stricter sanctions against Iran, fight terrorism, and support Israel.
- "President Trump will serve as America's Negotiator in Chief and work to get innocent civilians held hostage home," she said.
Behind the scenes: When Israeli President Isaac Herzog called Trump to congratulate him on his election win, he told the president-elect that securing the release of the 101 hostages is "an urgent issue," according to three people briefed on the call.
- "You have to save the hostages," Herzog told Trump, who in response said almost all of the hostages have most likely died.
- The Israeli president then told Trump that Israeli intelligence services believe half of them are still alive.
- "Trump was surprised and said he wasn't aware of that," one source told Axios. Two other sources briefed on the call confirmed that Trump said he thought most of the hostages were dead.
When Herzog met Biden at the White House on Nov. 11, he asked the president to work with Trump on the issue between now and Jan. 20 when Trump takes office, a source with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.
- Two days later, when he hosted Trump for a two-hour meeting at the Oval Office, Biden raised the hostages and proposed they work together to push for a deal.
- "I don't care if Trump gets all the credit as long as they come back home," Biden told the families of the American hostages in a meeting a few hours after his conversation with Trump, according to two sources with direct knowledge.
Flashback: Ronald Reagan, a former president Trump has said he admires, faced a similar situation as he prepared to take office in 1981. His predecessor Jimmy Carter signed a hostage deal with Iran on Jan. 19, 1981. The next day just after Reagan was inaugurated, 52 Americans who were held by Iran for 444 days were released.
- Orna and Ronen Neutra, the parents of U.S. citizen Omer Neutra who has been held by Hamas in Gaza for 412 days, wrote an open letter to Trump in the Washington Post and said they believe he can have a Reagan moment of his own.
- They pointed to how countries in the region with influence on Hamas, including Iran and Qatar, seem to be recalculating their actions since Trump won the election.
- "We have a message for Mr. Trump: Time is of the essence. We are counting on your leadership to bring Omer home," they wrote.
State of play: Negotiations over the hostage and ceasefire deal have been stuck for more than three months.
- In a meeting earlier this week, the heads of the Israel Defense Forces, the Mossad and the Shin Bet told Netanyahu they believe Hamas is not likely to drop its conditions for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war.
- They told him if the Israeli government is interested in a deal, it must soften its current positions, two Israeli officials with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.
- But Netanyahu has refused to end the war in return for a hostage deal, claiming it would allow Hamas to survive and suggest Israel was defeated.
- A senior Israeli official told Axios that if a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is reached, it will increase pressure on Hamas and refocus efforts on getting a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal.
What to watch: Some Israeli officials say Trump, who has said he wants the war in Gaza to end quickly, will have much more leverage and influence than Biden over Netanyahu.
- Biden has repeatedly pressed Netanyahu to soften his position but failed.
- Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who is close to many members of the President-elect's new team, told Axios that Trump should act now to get a deal.
- "President Trump should immediately issue a clear demand for the release of all hostages, task his senior officials to begin working on this before January 20, and warn all parties of the consequences of defying the incoming U.S. president. He must be clear that the release of the hostages is a non-negotiable precondition for a ceasefire," Dubowitz said.
