RFK Jr. faces multiple risks to becoming health secretary

The big picture: There's a lot of early confidence that Kennedy could have a hard skate but will ultimately get confirmed, especially because members have larger concerns with other controversial nominees — like former Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general — and may have to pick their battles.

• So far, Republican senators have been noncommittal about Kennedy's nomination. (Read more about what lawmakers are saying on Axios Pro.)

Reality check: Most GOP senators are going to support most, if not all, of President-elect Trump's nominees. But with a 53-seat majority, Kennedy can only afford to lose three votes if Democrats unite against him.

• Not all factions of the GOP will have the same concerns.

Between the lines: The 70-year-old Kennedy's history of courting controversy could give Republicans much to pick over, if they choose.

• But it's not a given that all of the chamber's Democrats will oppose him. Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has supported his nomination, and some of Kennedy's less controversial views — like limiting direct-to-consumer drug ads — have some bipartisan support.

Where it stands: Kennedy's biggest liabilities generally fall into four categories.

Bucket 1: His views on vaccines, pharma and the medical establishment.

• Put Kennedy's views on everything drug- and research-related that Republicans have typically supported in this bucket.
• Kennedy is the nation's most prominent vaccine critic but says he doesn't want to take away anyone's vaccines. While Republicans have questioned the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 shots, they've never before made vaccination a defining issue — and the public skepticism in GOP circles is quite new.
• The GOP has traditionally been a reliable defender of the pharmaceutical industry and policies that help bring more new therapies to market faster. Kennedy, on the other hand, has insinuated that there's a link between Big Pharma and the rise of chronic disease, casting doubt not only on the price of drugs — the more conventional topic of political debate — but their safety as well.
• And Kennedy has also been vocal about overhauling or even dismantling parts of the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health, agencies that for a long time enjoyed bipartisan support.

Yes, but: The GOP has changed in recent years, tapping into some voters' distrust of government and willingness to embrace conspiracies. The desire for post-pandemic public health agency reforms somewhat dovetails with Kennedy's desire to "clean up agencies."

• The Senate, however, still has some old-guard Republicans in it — including, for example, Sen. Mitch McConnell, a polio survivor.

Bucket 2: Abortion

• For all of Kennedy's other controversial positions, it's his support of abortion rights — although his exact positions have changed frequently — that is emerging as a sleeper problem for his confirmation.
• "For the majority of his career, RFK Jr. has defended abortion on demand during all nine months of pregnancy, supports overturning the Dobbs decision and has called for legislation to codify Roe v. Wade. If confirmed, RFK Jr. would be the most pro-abortion Republican appointed secretary of HHS in modern history," former Vice President Pence said in a statement opposing Kennedy's nomination shortly after it was announced.
• "There's no question that we need a pro-life HHS secretary, and of course, we have concerns about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I believe that no matter who is HHS secretary, baseline policies set by President Trump during his first term will be re-established," SBA Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser said in a statement.
• Senate Republicans — one of whom held up hundreds of military nominations last year in protest of a Pentagon abortion policy — by and large haven't raised this as a red flag, although some will undoubtedly press Kennedy about his views.

Yes, but: Kennedy said earlier this year that he supports restricting abortion access at "fetal viability," CNN reports — a week after he'd said on a podcast that he opposes any government limits on abortion access.

Bucket 3: Agriculture policy

• Kennedy's desire to overhaul the food system and the Department of Agriculture has freaked out the food industry and potentially some members from agriculture-heavy states.
• "I may have to spend a lot of time educating him about agriculture, and I'm willing to do that," Sen. Chuck Grassley told Politico.
• Kennedy may benefit from lawmakers not being of one mind on how to promote nutrition and wellness, with options ranging from tougher enforcement of food additives to the promotion of new products or foods as medicine.

Bucket 4: Skeletons in the closet

• Kennedy has a colorful past, to say the least. He made headlines toward the end of the presidential campaign for his alleged relationship with a reporter almost 40 years younger. Other notable headlines over the past year included his disclosure of a dead worm that had been found in his brain and his admission that he dumped a bear cub's body in Central Park a decade ago.
• There's fear of what else could come out as Kennedy's decades in the public eye are examined more closely.
• "Red state people are more likely to murder you, to impregnate your teenager daughter, to commit a violent crime against you," Kennedy said in one video unearthed by MeidasTouch. The Bulwark discovered remarks in which Kennedy said the COVID pandemic may have been planned.
• Presumably, the opposition research is just beginning.

The bottom line: Even with all of these vulnerabilities, Kennedy has a good shot of ultimately being confirmed as HHS secretary. If he does, it will be despite some Republicans' deep reservations about him.